Oil goes down 60 cents. Has the trend changed? Is it now pointing downward? Nick Rowe, manager of Focus Capital Wealth Management Inc., has a nice allegory. Tie a string to a sausage. Take it across the yard and stretch the string straight back to the house. Watch the dog—assuming you have a lively dog and a big yard.

The dog, according to Mr. Rowe, picks up the scent of the sausage, then loses it and moves away from the string—the trend. But he catches the smell again and comes back to the straight path. His movements stay within a range, like fluctuations in prices around a steady trend.

Obviously this won’t work for people who live in apartments and lack a yard or a frisky dog. They’ll have to be content watching the oil market.

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