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Archive for the ‘Managed Futures’ Category
Tuesday, February 5th, 2013
Our weekly newsletter is out, and since our Semi-Annual CTA Rankings were released last week, that means this week it’s time for our CTA spotlight. You see, twice a year we try to answer the age old investor question of which managed futures program is the best, and end up with our unique Top 15 ranking – which incorporates dozens of different statistical measures rather than just looking at which program made the most money last year.
Traditionally, we highlight the top program in that list in our spotlight newsletter one week later. But this time around, it wasn’t so straightforward. At the top of the focus list rankings was Tanyard Creek. It’s certainly a quality program from our view and traded by many of our clients, but they’re closed to new investors, making a spotlight for new investors pretty pointless. Then came Briarwood, Covenant and Mesirow - three programs we’ve already done relatively recent spotlights on.While it’s good to know our top ranked managers have been ranked highly so consistently that we’ve already profiled them in the past, we thought our readers could benefit from seeing a fresh face.
So today, we will take a look at our #5 ranked program, an agricultural CTA called M6 Capital. M6 is run by Chris Myers, who, eats, lives, and breathes the stuff he trades. And despite his proclivity for numbers and trading, he is truly a master story teller. To learn more, read our full of profile of what is, in our opinion, a strong, unique agricultural program worth considering.
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To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures, Research | No Comments »
Tuesday, January 29th, 2013
It’s that time of year again – time for Attain Capital’s Semi-Annual CTA Rankings. We have the data for all of the CTAs we track through 2012, allowing us to try and answer the question we get on a daily basis: What’s your BEST managed futures program? That question is always a tricky one, as depending on who is asking it, they may want to know any one of several variations on who is best. Best last year? Best for all time? Best risk adjusted return? Best in terms of lowest drawdowns?
What do we base these rankings on? We’ve dedicated extensive resources over the years to analyzing and testing a rankings system that would best reflect what we believe to be the important metrics for measuring competency in this investment space.
This is trickier than it looks, to be sure. Put too much emphasis on returns, and you penalize those who control risk well. Too much emphasis on experience, and you penalize a potential new star who has performed well in their first 5 years. Too much reliance on the present, and you discount the past, but with too much on the past and you discount the present.
That being said, we believe the formula we’ve crafted is one of the most comprehensive in the industry. To see what we mean, head on over to check out our most thorough edition of the Attain Capital Semi-Annual CTA Rankings to date.
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To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures, Research | No Comments »
Wednesday, January 16th, 2013
Our weekly newsletter is out, and sadly we must add 2012 to the list of poor managed futures years. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. 2012 was supposed to the bounce back year for managed futures after a negative 2011. Managed futures as an asset class had never had back to back losing years, so it surely wasn’t going to happen this time… right?
Wrong. As the disclaimer says – past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Managed futures did indeed put in back to back losing years, with the main managed futures indices finishing down between –1.65% and –3.21%. And the bigger problem – that’s three out of four losing years for the poster child for portfolio diversification after 2008. What’s worse, it’s not like managed futures losses came in the context of larger losses for stocks or bonds or real estate. Nope, they performed poorly on a relative scale too, coming in last among the asset classes we track.
The main culprit, a lack of trends – with our Average % Trending Days indicator clocking in at the lowest level in 13 years:

Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The question is – what’s next? What does 2013 hold? Do we give up? Is trend following really dead? Has high frequency trading (HFT) really changed the game for non trend followers?
Well, it’s pure folly to pretend we can say with any accuracy where managed futures will end up over the next 12 months. We’re not interested in playing that game. No, we’re interested in analyzing the conditions which caused managed futures as an asset class to perform the way it did in 2012, and discussing whether those conditions will persist in the new year, reverse course, or yield to different conditions. Click through to see what we found.
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To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures, Research | No Comments »
Friday, January 4th, 2013
In 2012 we discussed methods of trading the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures contract at CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE). In this article, we will review the previously discussed trading methods and how to apply them to the current market environment.
Liquidity is an important factor for trading. Several times during 2012 VIX futures volume reached record levels including a record high of 2,734,248 contracts in November, Which was a 233% increase from November 2011’s 822,017 contracts and which broke the prior trading volume record set in October by 12%. In November the Average Daily Volume for VIX futures was 130,202, an increase of 233% from November 2011. To date, the November VIX futures total volume is 86% higher than it was in 2011 and year-to-date trading volume is 21,344,285 contracts versus 11,455,871 in 2011.i
In past articles we discussed the use of four VIX futures trading strategies: 1) utilizing support and resistance to seek contrarian changes at range bound extremes; 2) crossing of moving averages; 3) utilizing the Aroon Oscillator; and 4) using the True Range to trade VIX futures. In this article the parameters have been set to the same level as they were set in previous articles.
We begin discussing the support and resistance methodology. We originally discussed this in the September 2012 article “VIX Trading Strategies”. The VIX futures contract historically tends to find major price support between 10 and 15 and it finds major price resistance around 40 (with the exception of the financial crisis). As you will notice in the monthly chart below VIX futures tend to rally after forming a floor at or near a price of 15. This most recently occurred in 2010 and 2011. During the last several months, the VIX contract has once again found the price of 15 to be major price support area. Could this be the foundation of a floor for a rally in 2013?
Chart 1: Monthly Nearest VIX Futures Chart with Support and Resistance
READ MORE
Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com
Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Â There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Â Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Â Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. Â The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Posted in Friday's Random Shots, General, Hedge fund strategies, Indexes, Managed Futures, Quant Speak, Risk Management, Trading | No Comments »
Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013
Our weekly newsletter is out, continuing our look at managed futures indices. A couple of weeks ago, we began a long overdue defense of managed futures indices. Financial indices are useful, albeit imperfect, tools for understanding asset class performance, but managed futures indices are criticized far more frequently than traditional indices are, and we’d had enough of the poorly-founded saber rattling.
However, the defense wound up much longer than we’d anticipated, and rather than bombard you one enormous piece, we decided to split the defense into two parts. Christmas last week delayed the send of the second part, and New Year’s yesterday would have delayed it further, but we have too much planned for the coming weeks to delay any further. So, without any further ado, the continued defense of managed futures indices.

Newedge = Newedge CTA Index; DJCS = Dow Jones Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index; Barclay = BarclayHedge CTA Index; S&P TR = S&P 500 Total Return Index
Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures, Research | No Comments »
Tuesday, December 11th, 2012
Our weekly newsletter is out, and as the year draws to a close, we find ourselves reflecting on all that has happened. Programs have launched into the limelight while others have shuttered their doors. Managed futures as an asset class has struggled, prompting some to declare trend following prematurely dead. PFGBest shook the industry to its core, and spurred a series of reforms that have made customers safer than ever. Europe continued to plague the markets, with this little thing called the fiscal cliff looming large on the horizon.
Yes, it’s been one heck of a year, and we’re proud of the research and reports we’ve put out (and even more excited about what we have in store for you over the next 12 months). We learned a great deal going back through our 40+ managed futures newsletters this year, but that’s a lengthy process and a lot of reading for most. So as you prepare to celebrate the holidays and head into the New Year, we’ve prepared the following list of the 10 most popular Attain newsletters in 2012 based on reader favorites, staff picks, and the amount of views each newsletter had.
So for those doing some managed futures research, those looking or more education, or just in case you missed one of our research pieces – here are 10 of our most important managed futures discussions of 2012.
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To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures | No Comments »
Wednesday, December 5th, 2012
Our weekly newsletter is out, and this time we’re tackling the question of size. After all, we live in a world where bigger is always better. Our Hummers may not be fuel efficient, but they sure look sharp. McMansions are the only way to keep up with the Joneses, off-brand is off-color, and you best not mess with Texas. But to what end is this obsession with “more” a function of base psychology, and to what extent does it push us to act against our best interests?
Don’t worry- we’re not about to bombard you with a Zizek-esque critique of consumerism, but we have found ourselves asking this question around the office a lot more these days. The past couple of years have been rough for managed futures- there’s no way around it- but many of the smaller managers we work with have done well during this time period, and far better than their titanic counterparts. Of course past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, but why do the very large programs tend to see performance flatten out over time?
This is not to say that some of the largest CTAs aren’t quality programs. They are the best of the best across almost every quantitative and qualitative measure. But, their past performance really hasn’t been indicative of future results. After all, the giants of the managed futures space were once well known for double and triple digit returns. Today? Not so much.
Some of them will rebound from the current slump. Others may not. But why are they in a slump in the first place? Why aren’t they 100 times better than a smaller manager when they are 100 times their size? Are they delivering smaller results on purpose? Are they getting too big to access the necessary markets and trades? What we found may surprise you.
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To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures, Research | No Comments »
Tuesday, November 27th, 2012
Our weekly newsletter is out, and it seems like we’re starting to get a little morbid around here – first with the “Is Trend Following Dead?” piece a couple weeks back, and now an “autopsy” of sorts on what went wrong at John W. Henry’s self-named firm. Some of the sales teams in the industry may prefer to avoid discussing such subjects, probably thinking something along the lines that doing so will “scare away the customers,” but to hear that John W. Henry was shutting down his eponymous managed futures shop was the kind of news that draws us like a moth to a flame.
Here was an industry stalwart in every sense of the word. A man who helped put managed futures on the map, and helped his pocket book to the tune of becoming a billionaire. He is a literal Hall of Famer, having received the Futures Hall of Fame award (whatever that is) from the Futures Industry Association. This isn’t quite Paul Simon hanging up his guitar, or Steven Spielberg deciding to get out of the movie business – but it’s close in terms of shock factor in the managed futures space.
This raises one huge question – well, actually, it raises hundreds of questions – but the big one is this: what in the world happened? We don’t just mean this week in the announcement that he was done, either. What happened in the past 8 years to transform a behemoth into a blip on the radar? Where did John Henry go wrong? Eight years ago he was managing $3 Billion and on top of the managed futures world, with a hot young upstart called Winton measuring in at only about 1/3 the size of Henry’s managed futures empire.
Why was 2004 the top for Henry, yet just a launching point for Winton and other billion-dollar managers? But most importantly for investors - how can we learn to identify when a top-tier managers’ best days are behind them? Click through to see what we found.

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To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures, Research | No Comments »
Tuesday, November 20th, 2012
Our weekly newsletter is out, and as has been the tradition at Attain, we are in the Thanksgiving mood. This Thursday, homes across America will be inundated with the succulent scent of roasting turkey, whipped mashed potatoes and fresh pumpkin pie. Though we look forward to celebrating with family and friends, the Attain office is thinking about a different kind of turkey at the moment – a hypothetical turkey, complacent in his well-fed routine and ineligible for a Presidential pardon, as imagined by none other than Nassim Taleb.
Taleb describes the comfort a turkey finds in consistent feeding, and the confidence that arises from reliable care. Of course, the turkey has no idea that his comfort is merely preparation for the comfort of a home cooked meal in which he will be the not-so-comfortable guest of honor. Because we’re nerds, every year we get a chuckle out of recreating a graphic from The Black Swan, depicting 1000 and 1 days in the life of the fowl, getting a bit of a  morbid laugh from the fate of the poor turkey in question.
This metaphor isn’t just an exercise is geek humor, though; there is an important lesson to be derived from the untimely end of the well-fed bird. Whether the chart here runs an uneasy parallel to your equity portfolio in 2008 or seems to mimic the trajectory of your Netflix stock holdings, it serves as a reminder that the unthinkable can and will happen. The investor most likely to be familiar with such an equity curve, however, is the investor in an options program. They’ve feasted on the bird, and they’ve been in its shoes on the cutting block, but, still, most don’t go vegan… click through to find out why.
-Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -
To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures | No Comments »
Wednesday, November 7th, 2012
Our weekly newsletter is out, and we’re taking a closer look at the bread and butter of the managed futures world: trend following. It was back in June that we said the coming month was make or break for managed futures. The trend decidedly down across stocks, commodities, and the rest of the “risk on” crowd; and we saw the asset class (and trend following in particular) at risk of losses should there be a “risk on” reversal.
Maybe we should have kept our mouths shut, because a trend reversal was just what happened – with a 10%+ rally in US stocks (S&P 500) over the next few months and similar “risk on” rallies across other markets. Next thing anyone knew, the ups and downs of the summer were over and managed futures, per the Newedge CTA index sat down nearly -3% for the year as of the end of October.
It’s all led to more than a couple people we’ve talked to recently uttering those words we actually love to hear: “is trend following dead”?
These are fighting words in most managed futures circles, but every now and then, this bandwagon starts up. Everyone has a different reason for the proclamation. The space has gotten too crowded, they’ll argue, or the biggest players have become too dominant. Others will say that high-frequency trading has killed traditional market dynamics, while others point to government intervention and the always-on monetary printing press as culprits in underperformance. But has the strategy really lost its luster? Click through to read the full piece.
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To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.
DISCLAIMER
Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.
The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices: such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.
Posted in Managed Futures, Research | No Comments »
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