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Archive for the ‘Hedge fund strategies’ Category

Currencies in Your Future Portfolio?

Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

By Mark Shore
mshore@shorecapmgmt.com

Since the economic decline in 2008, there has been a growing demand of individual and institutional investors to consider various choices of non-correlated investments to reduce tail risk (downside deviation)(i) and correlation risk, often known as alternative investments.

There is a good chance an investor will have stocks and bonds in their portfolio via a 401k, IRA, pension fund or directly into mutual funds. Perhaps they have some real estate either as an investment or the home they live in and maybe some private equity.

In 2008 and 2009, most stocks both domestically and foreign became highly correlated as they headed south and everyone was seeking the exit door simultaneously, thus causing losses to extend as panic selling and the need to liquidate increased.

One of the increasing areas of non-correlation investment is the currency market or sometimes called forex or FX (foreign exchange). In August, 1971 President Nixon removed the U.S. dollar from the gold standard, ending the Bretton Woods agreement and causing currencies to float at market rates. In December 1971, Professor Milton Friedman wrote “The Need for Futures Markets in Currencies”.(ii) May, 1972, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced currency futures.(iii)

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Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at mshore@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures/ global macro course.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Utilizing Dynamic Correlations of the VIX vs the S&P 500

Monday, August 13th, 2012

Published July 31, 2012
CBOE Futures Exchange
“Futures in Volatility” Newsletter
By Mark Shore

While analyzing the utility value of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futuresÂź contract relative to the underlying market (S&P 500), a question often arises regarding the correlation of these two instruments. In this article we look at various durations of rolling correlations to determine its utility value.

The “static” correlation of two investment components is often quoted in a correlation matrix table when multiple markets are discussed or if there are only two markets, a single quote.

From January 2004 to June 2012, static correlation of daily VIX end of day data to the S&P 500 is -0.75. However, a static correlation does not always offer a strong profile of correlation. Correlation typically depends on the time duration of a holding period, thus building a profile of that period. One must keep in mind the S&P 500 has a growth component, whereas the VIX is more of a mean reverting market with moments of upward or downward spikes.

Between January 2004 and June 2012, the VIX reached its maximum close of 80.06 on October 27, 2008. It reached a minimum of 9.89 on January 24, 2007. During this period the VIX has averaged 21.08

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Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Volatility Futures: Relative Strength - A Family of Futures Products

Sunday, June 10th, 2012

By Mark Shore
CBOE Futures Exchange “Futures In Volatility” Newsletter
May 31,  2012

Many investors are familiar with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) that is calculated based on options on the S&P 500 Index option and is an indicator of implied volatility and investor sentiment. But some may not be aware that CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) lists and trades the VIX futures contract (Ticker symbol: VX).

The popularity of the VX futures contract has grown and the VX futures contract recently experienced its highest trading volume month in March 2012 with 1.96 million contracts traded, which is an 84% increase from a year earlier.

As the popularity of the VX futures contract increases, CFE continues to expand the volatility index franchise to include futures and security futures contracts covering several underlying markets. See the table below for a list of the volatility index futures and security futures that CFE currently offers for trading on its market.

From the retail investor to the institutional investor or money manager such as a Commodity Trading Advisor or hedge fund, there is always the question: “How can an investor utilize these contracts in a portfolio?”

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Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance. Mark is a contributing writer to Reuters HedgeWorld and the CBOE Futures Exchange.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Why Government Debt Isn’t Going Away Any Time Soon - And What It Means For Investors

Monday, June 4th, 2012

We find ourselves living in historic times along many fronts.

At a recent campaign event, presidential hopeful Mitt Romney took a hard look at the reality of government debt, noting that the thorny crisis caused by perpetual can kicking will likely be faced by our kids in the near future.

While Mr. Romney is right to address the seriousness of the government debt issue, he may be slightly off on the timing of this trade. While he anticipates the debt crisis to require attention “by our kids,” mathematical logic might indicate the problem could fester in the very near future – potentially in three to five years in the United States, according to some projections. The mathematical logic indicates that the over expansive monetary policy that lead governments to embrace expenditures significantly higher than their revenues is coming to an end. Greece is example A of a society that received a natural margin call. With debt to GDP breaking into triple digits, investors might take note that all governments will likely receive their “margin call” at some point. The question is, when?

Republican Congressman Paul Ryan (Wisconsin) may have corrected Romney’s timing. Speaking on Meet the Press on Sunday, May 20, Representative Ryan called for a potential US debt crisis in two to four years. This coincides with other credible projections. “We could have a debt crisis in (the US in) 2-3 years absent action,” observed David Walker, former US Controller General and head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO). “There is a lot of irony and hypocrisy in Washington’s desire to make sure that JP Morgan has proper risk management practices,” Mr. Walker added, noting a general lack of appropriate risk management in government regarding deficit spending and leverage usage. Mr. Walker has been the early leader in speaking to the mathematical logic of a coming debt crisis, a message that few care to hear.

Making the required difficult and unpopular political decisions required to fix the debt problem will require significant political will. David Gregory of NBC’s Meet The Press noted this in his May 20, 2012 grilling of Republican Congressman Paul Ryan and Democratic Senator Dick Durbin. This is because over-leveraged governments have really two choices, neither of which are positive. In other words, there are no easy answers to the debt problem, only “worse and worser,” as author John Mauldin is so fond to point out the harsh reality.

What is the mathematical and practical logic behind a two to three year debt crisis projection?

Here is the reality, the wakeup call: In the United States, a demographic shift in three to five years is about to strain budgets as the government continues to spend nearly double its revenue. This is well documented in a Bloomberg BusinessWeek article written July 27, 2011. This demographic shift occurs when baby booming seniors retire in historic numbers, straining government benefits. This strain may occur the same time interest rates have risen, as a once infallible fiat currency discovers its fallibility. This strains a budget just when expenditures are running nearly double revenues. That’s the mathematical logic, one potential outcome. But the undeniable truth is that deficit spending such as being exhibited by government would be alarming on any balance sheet, but the fact that it isn’t even being addressed in a serious fashion is troubling, the root cause of the debt crisis.

Consider Greece from the basic perspective of their out of control leverage usage, with government spending well beyond revenues for years. When asked to face the economic problem and address the core structural issues through austerity – the widely unpopular `political choice – politicians prefer to kick the can down the road. The problem Greek political leaders face is they have just discovered the limits of how far the can kicking can last.

Is Greece a “One Off?”

When investors take a pure mathematical look at the structural problems, similar core issues appear in other over-leveraged western societies. Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, to name a few, all have the same structural spending problem, which could come to a head shortly. And from a mathematical perspective similar problems exist with the government who currently holds the reserve currency of choice status. At a basic level an understanding needs to take place that the root of the difficult problem is spending must be cut and revenues need to be increased. This will become a political football, a tug of war of epic proportion.

Will False “Growth” Through Easy Monetary Policy Solve the Problem?

In the past, the easy solution for government has been to stimulate growth through quantitative easing. Such tactics of “adding liquidity” typically work well early in a debt cycle but have less impact the more they are used. An example of this in the US can be found by examining the significant impact of an easy monetary policy during the 1980s and contrasting this to the relatively diminishing return on “growth” that today’s quantitative easing has on the economy. If one were a trader looking at the debt crisis they might conclude the significant risk of adding leverage to the government debt trade might not be worth the diminishing reward.

The key for investors is to recognize that the market environment to which western economies are headed may require difficult political solutions, which will not be easily solved without volatility. This could lead to a very different economic environment to which investors should be prepared to defend against. Economic environments that perhaps could be punctuated with bouts of volatility with strong market price trends emerging both positive and negative.

To read the entire article, click here

Mark Melin will be speaking on a panel at HedgeWorld June 6 @ 1:30 regarding MF Global. Click here for the agenda.

About the Author: Mark Melin is host of the internet video show Uncorrelated Investing and editor of Opalesque Futures Intelligence, a newsletter written for professional investors that covers investments in the futures and options industry. A futures industry practitioner and consultant, Mark has taught managed futures as an adjunct instructor at Northwestern University / Chicago and has written or edited three books, including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008). Mark has worked as a consultant to the Chicago Board of Trade and OneChicago, the single stock futures exchange. He was director of the managed futures division at Alaron Trading until they were acquired by Peregrine Financial Group in 2009. Mark worked with Peregrine Financial Group until 2011.

All contents copyright 2011 © Mark H. Melin all rights reserved.

Risk Disclosure: This article is intended for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not always indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Managed futures investing can involve volatility and may not be appropriate for all investors. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, they are not appropriate for all investors and may not have considered all risk factors.

Absolute hedge fund returns trail equities in first quarter

Tuesday, April 24th, 2012

Hedge fund strategies tracked by the Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index trailed equity returns in the first quarter of 2012, but if investors knew where to look there were some individual funds that outperformed.

For instance, Global Macro managers as a whole returned 1.58% on an absolute basis in the Jan. 1 to March 31 period, below the 4.04% return of the broad hedge fund index and the 12.59% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index. However all of the funds in the top-10 for global macro as tracked by Dow Jones Credit Suisse outperformed not only the broader hedge fund index, but the S&P 500 as well (see chart below).

The full chart—including top absolute return data for Convertible Arbitrage, Dedicated Short Bias, Emerging Markets, Equity Market Neutral, Event Driven, Fixed Income Arbitrage, and Long/Short Equity Hedge—is available to HedgeWorld Premium Plus members here. It comes out monthly, as do charts covering top risk-adjusted performance, top fund-of-funds performance and index and sub-index net performance. If you don’t have a Premium Plus membership, click here to find out how to get one: hedgeworld.com/membership/.

Do They Think We Are Stupid? “Mr. Vaporized” of MF Global Fame Un-masked?

Thursday, March 8th, 2012

(What follows is the authors individual speculation.  Written by Mark Melin with Bob English.  To download a PDF version of this article, visit  http://www.go2managedfutures.com/Vaporized.pdf)

Sometimes you wonder if we’re living in an alternate universe.

Recent news reports that cite un-named sources and indicate the MF Global criminal case has “gone cold” are curious.  In fact, these news reports are even more bizarre than previous reports claiming MF Global client funds have simply “vaporized.”  A pattern of behavior and reporting appears to be emerging that supports one overall goal: push the MF Global story under the radar, avoiding serious investigation and keep the inner workings and questionable circumstances surrounding a historic event out of public view and understanding. This, in turn, paves the way for MF Global creditors to legally swoop in on what rightfully belongs to the customers.

The “vaporized” and “case gone cold” news reports all convey a common underlying message: no one is responsible for what is now estimated as the loss of $1.6 billion taken from customer segregated accounts.  There was no criminal activity.  The message seems to instruct people to “mind their own business, keep quiet and just ignore what is the 8th largest bankruptcy in US history, a scandal tainted with fraud allegations that involves a man who is arguably the most politically connected Wall Street insider to ever walk among the backroom corridors of Washington DC.”  Yet, by not officially using the “f” word (fraud), regulators, trustees, prosecutors and the rest of the panoply of public “protectors” make it more likely that the recipients, such as JP Morgan, of hundreds of millions in transfers of customer money in MF Global’s final days will simply get to keep it.  The core integrity of the commodity markets has been destroyed and an “industry of investor protections” with an exemplary regulatory record for protecting customer funds, now demands a rewrite.

This is the story we are supposed not to discuss? Is it really too complicated for mere mortals to understand?

Explaining a Complex Story with a Simple Analogy

One critical goal among those on the side of JP Morgan and other creditors is that they are attempting to confuse the issue, so it helps to start with a simple analogy of what occurred.

Imagine for a moment that MF Global was your bank. One day you woke up and discovered that the account holding your college savings was gone. Poof! The money in your retirement accounts and related checking accounts had just been “vaporized.” You go to ask the bank where you money is and you are locked out of the bank while strangers who are not depositors are allowed to enter and take assets from the bank, including the contents of the “safe” deposit boxes. You finally hear from the bank and the authorities, who essentially say that while they can see all the transactions of the bank over the last month, for some reason, there is just no longer any trace of the money, and no explanation of what happened. The funds just “vaporized.”  And after a few weeks of minimal information dribbles, you hear the search has gone cold.  You are told the money disappeared in a chaotic tsunami of transactions and there is no evidence of any criminal actions.  But, if money happens to get found, you might get some of it.  Oh, and the contents of your safe deposit box are going to be auctioned off, with only a portion of the funds returned to you (this was the fate of the unlucky souls who held gold and silver bars on deposit in their own name with MF Global).  That’s all…talk to you later. Good bye and good luck.

How would you react? Would the notion that your money “vaporized” elicit outrage?

Welcome to the MF Global case, one that is currently being swept into the tangle of questionable bankruptcy litigation and under the media rug.

In Criminal Investigations, Shouldn’t The Witnesses to a Crime And Suspects Be Interviewed Before a Case “Goes Cold”

In the case of MF Global, claims of customer “seg funds” being “vaporized” and the “case going cold” are made without investigators interrogating the primary suspect and individual in charge, former MF Global and Goldman Sachs President, New Jersey Senator & Governor, Jon Corzine.   As the New York Times reported last week, “
authorities have yet to interview key witnesses — including a person who is believed to have transferred client funds in the firm’s final days.”  Yet around the same time, Reuters reports:  “Criminal Probe Trial going cold at MF Global.”

One would, of course, think a “case gone cold” proclamation is made only after investigators have finished examining all evidence, and only after questioning the primary suspect and all witnesses.  That’s not the case – investigators claim they haven’t finished reviewing documents, but they are pretty sure the “case is cold.” Further, and as an aside, Mr. Freeh, trustee for MF Global Holdings has agreed to release documents from October 17th going forward, but nothing from before that date.  Why would a US Trustee, under the authority of the Department of Justice, withhold anything needed for the investigation? (Many questions regarding Mr. Freeh’s appointment as trustee, and who recommended that appointment, are not being addressed in this document.)

Is this the information the financial services industry is asked to accept and then “vaporize” from its collective mind?

The “vaporized propaganda campaign” is a well-coordinated effort intended to confuse, divert and distract from the truth surrounding the crime of taking over a billion of customer funds.  That’s the goal. In fact, it’s impressive how “Mr. Vaporized” has managed to keep this case out of the news so well.

How  “Vaporized” and “Mr. Vaporized” Entered the Picture

On January 24, 2012 a jarring news leak, first reported by Wall Street Journal reporters Scott Patterson and Aaron Lucchetti, was said to come from sources close to judicial proceedings.  The report made the now famous claim that MF Global customer funds had simply “vaporized.” After months of rapt attention to the question of “where’s the money,” those in the media still paying attention were now told the money just simply disappeared without a trace! Poof!

After initial, and inaccurate speculation, a potential source for the leak emerged and was summarily dubbed “Mr. Vaporized.” It is the author’s speculation that “Mr. Vaporized” is none other than Kent Jarrell, the third party media management consultant hired by customer trustee James Giddens.  When reached for comment Mr. Jarrell responded “I have no idea where that word ‘vaporized’ originated from and I don’t know what you are talking about.”

Mr. Jarrell is a highly connected Washington DC media operative, who works for APCO Worldwide, a marketing, brand management and public relations firm with significant experience in “community relations” and strategic media planning.  Mr. Jarrell is director of APCO’s Washington, D.C.-based litigation communication practice.  The firm’s web site states “He advises CEOs, general counsels and boards of directors on preparation for unfolding material events.”  And that, “He currently 
advises the trustee in the liquidation of Lehman Brothers Inc.” Attorney James Giddens is also the Lehman Brothers Liquidation Trustee, a case in which $160 million was said to have been billed by trustees in legal fees.

Mr. Jarrell’s role in MF Global has been limited to communications regarding the liquidation and bankruptcy, as well as controlling the message and public expectations. Early in the process, Mr. Jarrell relayed a message through the media to MF Global clients that they should be prepared to “share” the MF Global proceeds with creditors such as JP Morgan.  The message further stated that customers would only receive on a pro rata basis what is “identified by the trustee as available for distribution.”  Further, that “The trustee then would be unlikely to find much value within the estate to pay back commodities customers, unless he can locate the missing cash,” noted a Reuters article.

In previous cases where futures brokers failed, the customer accounts were either transferred to another broker prior to a bankruptcy filing or the customers were afforded priority protection above all other claims in the bankruptcy process, in accordance with the Commodity Exchange Act.   (That customers are not first is only so because of the curious way in which the bankruptcy and liquidation were structured by the regulators and MF Global execs in the first place.   The parent holdings company filed under Chapter 11, generally used for reorganizations—not liquidations—and the broker unit was forced into a SIPA liquidation by the Securities and Exchange Commission.  This decision has been a highly debated topic, as the 99% of accounts that were futures customers were afforded no insurance under SIPA and no protections from bankruptcy that fall under the Commodity Exchange Act.  All in all, another MF Global mystery.)

On October 31, 2011, the day of the filings (or, perhaps even before), MF Global and its regulators may have planned such a structure to put customers on the same footing as creditors.   Whatever went on in those closed door meetings, these reports of a new set of rules came as yet another shock to futures industry participants.

How Stupid Do They Think We Are?

Rules of propaganda teach us that if you repeat something long enough, no matter how absurd, it will eventually be believed.  Multiple sources and narratives have parroted the thematic evolution: there was an unknown amount of missing money, which became money that had somehow disappeared, and finally an investigation gone cold, setting the stage for customers to expect less than 100% of their money back.

In an article dated January 30, 2012, The Wall Street Journal reported “a ‘significant amount’ of the money could have ‘vaporized’ as a result of chaotic trading at MF Global during the week before the company’s Oct. 31 bankruptcy filing, said a person close to the investigation.” It is interesting to note the phrase “a person close to the investigation” might indicate someone associated with court proceedings or grand jury proceedings.

Is anyone so stupid to believe that customer funds held in a segregated account could simply “vaporize?”  Yet sources quoted in the Wall Street Journal seem to believe that could be possible. The assertion was widely questioned by those with knowledge of the situation, including CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton and US Congressman Bill Posey.

Judging by reactions of expert industry participants on Twitter, the medium de jour for exchange among professionals in the futures industry, the outrageous stunt of the “vaporized” claim was met with shock and disbelief.  Knowledgeable industry participants understand there are special documentation requirements for 4-D and 30.7 customer funds and strict regulations that must be followed to move funds in such accounts.  Further, the brokers are subject to daily reporting requirements which, combined with the traditionally sacrosanct nature of segregated account protections, relentlessly drilled into industry participants, makes “mistakes” in this realm highly unlikely.

These claims of back office “mistakes” stand beside a less reported note. In sworn Congressional testimony CMEGroup Chairman Terry Duffy was clear.  Just before the bankruptcy, critical documents given to regulators by MF Global had been falsified.   Mr. Corzine’s sworn testimony had been called into question by an MF Global employee – an employee now potentially being prevented from talking, a story that needs to be told to prosecutors.  Not only has potential fraud been publically disclosed, but a web of fraud may lie underneath the 8th largest bankruptcy in US history.  But, as the propaganda campaign goes: Ignore MF Global.  No fraud investigation required here.

With informed participants now detecting that an obvious agenda was in play by the media sources close to the bankruptcy, the question becomes: why the focus on back office “mistakes” rather than investigate fraud?

Why Avoiding a Fraud Investigation Is So Critical: The Safe Harbor

If fraud is investigated in a bankruptcy it is much easier for illicit money transfers to be “clawed back” in Court through preference actions by the trustee.  Thus, in the case of MF Global, if $1.2 billion was wired out of MF Global to JPMorgan the week before the bankruptcy, this money could be safely returned to client segregated accounts.  If fraud is not investigated, if illicit money transfers will be allowed to move out of MF Global into JP Morgan, then JP Morgan keeps the money.

Speaking on Bloomberg Law, a web-based video program, editor at large Bill Rochelle was clear: “Here is (why fraud) is an important point in the bankruptcy process,” Rochelle continued.  “Congress passed what is known as a ‘safe harbor.’   What it says is the in a bankruptcy if money was paid in a stock transaction or if it was paid as margin, (MF Global account holders) can’t get it back.  The only way you can get money back in a case like that if (the money) disappeared as a result of actual fraud.  This report that the trustee was filing to me doesn’t sound like he (the trustee) is making a case for actual fraud, but rather (they are making a case for classical incompetence – and that may not be enough to get the money back,” which is a key point.  Legal sources independent of Mr. Rochelle say if fraud is involved in a bankruptcy case, MF Global customer rights could be enhanced.

Trustee Giddens Softens Up MF Global Customers to Take it on the Chin

On February 6, 2012, James W. Giddens, the MF Global broker unit Liquidation Trustee, who is statutorily tasked with obtaining as much recovery as possible for customers, released a preliminary status report.  In it, he sets the tone for ensuing media stories, toeing the “chaos and confusion” theme.    

In various places, the report implies a degree of certainty about the flow of funds in MF Global’s final days, such as, “The Trustee’s investigators have now traced a majority of the cash transactions, totaling more than $105 billion, made in and out of MFGI in the last week before bankruptcy and are completing the process of tracing the remaining transactions.”  And, “The Trustee has identified most of the parties that were the immediate recipients of transfers from MFGI during the final days and weeks of operation.”

Interspersed with these glimmers of hope, though, are statements about the reign of chaos, such as, “For three months the Trustee’s investigative team has worked to understand what happened during the final days of MF Global when cash and related securities movements were not always accurately and promptly recorded due to the chaotic situation and the complexity of the transactions.”  And, “The company’s computer systems and employees had difficulty keeping up with the unprecedented volume of transactions [in the final week]. A number of transactions were recorded erroneously or not at all.”

But, where subject and medium converge is in Trustee Giddens’ confusing representation of cash movements at the broker unit during the month of October, 2011:

Figure 1: Actual chart provided by Trustee to "simplify" MF Global money transfer. Could straight lines have been drawn between various parties?

Mainstream Media Starts to Find the Scent

It seemed that certain mainstream and alternative business journalists had begun to take an interest in the unusual circumstances of the case.  But the pattern of deception over truth would eventually persist, apparently taking a cue from Trustee Giddens’ early report about the back office.  Bloomberg’s Bill Rochelle noted the trustee’s report characterized MF Global management as simply having “lost control of the backroom.  The left hand didn’t know what the right hand was doing.  They were not recording transactions.  They (MF Global back office) ordinarily sometimes took out customer money but replaced it by the end of the day, but as the company was collapsing they weren’t able to.”

This characterization of MF Global back office behavior is noteworthy and requires critical examination.  Would back office testimony contradict these statements?  In fact, one familiar with MF Global operations and futures industry auditing procedures might express surprise at what was characterized as routine violations in back office behavior.  We may never know, because investigators have determined the case “is cold” before any investigation into what industry professionals consider highly unusual behavior for any firm regardless of the level of “chaos.”

On February 9, Reuters reporters Nick Brown and Grant McCool reported that an investigation of some sort was taking place, but again downplayed the possibility  for any serious charges due to “plenty of ‘chaos’ at MF Global in its waning days, but ‘no evidence of fraud,’” the article noted, quoting sources close to the investigation.

Unfortunately for MF Global customers, sweeping changes in the Federal Bankruptcy Code enacted in 2005 grant special super-priority status to derivatives in bankruptcy (including loans structured as repos) and prevent last minute margin transfers from being clawed back, except in the case of fraud (which everyone in charge refuses to discuss).  The excuse, or in legalese, “safe harbor”, was again roundly questioned by many leading industry professionals, including R. Christopher Whalen, when he appeared on CNBC with Rick Santelli and in an article he penned at Zero Hedge titled “MF Global: Where’s the Cash — Part II.”

The February 9 Reuters article went on to note “and keeping with the message pattern identified, people familiar with the situation said some executives and employees who, in the normal course of an investigation would have been interviewed by authorities at this stage, have not been asked to provide their version of events.” The February 10 report was similar in context and tone, noting an investigation was ongoing but that investigation was stalling.  This is a pattern that had developed, as increasingly pessimistic news concerning the potential for discovering the perpetrators was also accompanied by a dash of hope to add seasoning to the bad taste the investigation was leaving in people’s mouth.

Jubilation Over Justice Is Quickly Dampened

Fast forward to February 28, 2012. This is when solid news reports of a Chicago federal grand jury investigation surfaced in the CMEGroup annual report, which noted the exchange had received a subpoena.   This news was cheered by many industry participants, as the potential for justice finally appeared to arrive.  Just as quickly as the ray of hope of grand jury news reports were made public, another leak to the press emerged to dampen expectations that an investigation might yield results, again highlighting how the “case had gone cold.”

In an article titled “Doubtful Signs of a Criminal Case Against MF Global” on February 28, New York Times reporters Azam Ahmed and Ben Protess noted “Federal authorities are struggling to find evidence to support a criminal case stemming from the collapse of MF Global.”

Frustration Boils Over, Limited Options For Industry Participants

By now, growing discontentment from select industry participants with the investigation could be characterized as hostile.  Questions were being logically asked as to how it can be that a investigation was growing “cold” without interrogation of the primary suspect or interviewing potential witnesses to the crime.  Attempting to get their message heard with limited options, visible outrage occurred on Twitter, and a small group of industry participants, speaking behind the scenes, considered the motivation behind the press leaks.  A strategy appears to have emerged, with the goal to dampen expectations for any serious criminal charges and keep confidential key documents and testimony regarding what transpired before and after the historic bankruptcy.  Such suspicions grew with the next set of press leaks. Leaks apparently designed to discredit the more vulnerable.

Back Office Workers Defamed, Unable to Defend Themselves

From the moment CMEGroup Chairman Duffy released the bombshell that a senior MF Global employee had implicated Mr. Corzine, claiming falsification of documents and challenging the MF Global CEO’s sworn Congressional testimony, focus has been on those likely most knowledgeable of the situation: the back office employees.

Back office employees are typically trained to follow specific processes for managing customer capital, processes which are confirmed and audited on a regular basis by the broker’s regulator.  These processes are stressed tested, as the threat of real life chaos is considered a constant in the lives of many back office employees, particularly one as experienced and highly respected as Edith O’Brien, an MF Global treasurer.   It was these back office employees who likely executed what became, knowingly or not, the raid on customer segregated funds that may hold the key to understanding what really occurred.  If these individuals on the front lines were to provide testimony and documentation, it could unlock the key to understanding what transpired and potentially allow justice to prevail.

Unfortunately, the first news to emerge regarding back office employees didn’t focus on their cooperation with the court.  Instead, leaked reports focused on information possibly designed to defame the employees and paint a picture of lax back office behavior, which in turn supports the “vaporized” themes.  These leaks were also reported to come from those close to the court room proceedings and criminal investigation. Based on the documentation type, speculation favors that the documents were leaked by someone close to the liquidation trustee (Giddens) or bankruptcy trustee (Freeh), with a more distant possibility being law enforcement investigators.

How does the defamation of employees critical to the flow of funds work?

In an article published in both the Wall Street Journal and on the Fins Finance web site titled “Building Chaos at MF Global,” among the first reports to emerge regarding the MF Global back office focused on key employees and called them out by name.  The article noted that these two key employees were away at a ball room dancing competition in Las Vegas–a situation that might be laughable were it not so serious.  But this is yet only another distraction from the core issues.

The fact that two key employees, one, the MF Global North American finance chief, the second, the head of margins, would be away “ballroom dancing” when the company was under historic stress raises questions.  This curiosity is compounded when one considers that many at MF Global and inside the futures industry understood the firm may have been spiraling into bankruptcy during that very time.  In fact, senior management had prepared a “break the glass” document weeks before in early October that specifically identified a scenario under which the segregated customer funds account might go in the red.  Given this obvious crisis situation, of which senior management appeared acutely aware, why would management allow two key employees in finance and margins, potential customer safeguards, to be away at a time when they were known to be needed most?  It just does not add up.

All futures brokers are required to design and enforce internal controls and procedures that will protect customer funds under all circumstances.  These internal controls must be attested to by the firm’s senior officers and must be audited at least annually (in the case of MF Global, this was done by PricewaterhouseCoopers).  Who authorized these key employees to take time off in those critical days? What would be the motivation for top management to allow key back office personal to take off when, as Mr. Corzine even testified to Congress, they knew capital had to be rapidly raised and massive financial gaps had to be filled?     Were the firm’s internal controls and procedures followed?  Either way, the media ought to be questioning those who were responsible for designing and implementing those procedures, not putting out red herring stories that conjure images of a National Lampoon movie.

The source of these leaks ridiculing the two financial officers came from “internal emails, documents and people familiar with the matter.”  Who could this source be?  Simple knowledge of the case reminds us that the two trustees and FBI investigators had access to the documents in question.

More Strange Leaks, Wall Street Journal Headline: “Fast and Furious at MF Global”

The Wall Street Journal headline of March 1, 2012 may be appropriately titled, as it refers to another scandal at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, this one involving gun running to a Mexican drug cartel and a potential cover-up.

The article noted that “At 4:53 p.m. five days before MF Global Holdings Ltd. collapsed, an employee in its Chicago office asked a co-worker to move $165 million from one of the securities firm’s bank accounts to another.”  The approval was reportedly granted by email a mere minute later, and funds were transferred to an MF Global account at JP Morgan.  This raises a sea of questions:

First, the issue for customer segregated funds would have emanated from a transfer of funds from the futures brokerage unit into the securities brokerage unit.  The fact that it would be a securities to securities account transaction would fall under a different regulatory structure and likely not involve the theft of MF Global segregated funds.  MF Global had a paltry 318 securities accounts compared with over 38,000 active futures accounts.  Having said that, let’s assume the transfer was from a CFTC regulated futures account to an SEC regulated securities account.

That an end of day money transfer of $165 million out of a segregated account in the futures brokerage unit into the securities unit, approved in mere seconds, is almost surreal.  It could be speculated the speed at which this approval came might have indicated advance knowledge of the issue.  Conversely, if approvals of this magnitude are routinely granted this quickly, the issue of proper design and implementation of internal controls and procedures is brought into play.

To understand the significance of the approval, legal conditions are required between the bank depository and the FCM identifying the special segregated account status.  Further, what are known as 4-D and 30.7 account titles clearly identify the special nature of the customer segregated account.  Regulations that govern these special accounts cannot be violated–not on an end of day basis or even intraday, according to sworn Congressional testimony by CFTC General Counsel Dan Merkovitz. Did the transfer paperwork specify the 4-D or 30.7 account title?  With these rigid requirements, speculation among industry participants is that the move to transfer money out of a customer segregated account would not happen by “accident” in a moment of “chaos.”

According to the aforementioned February 6 status report filed in Court by Trustee Giddens, MF Global had a bad habit of dipping into customer funds during the day only to reconcile by the close of business.  Mr. Giddens states (emphasis ours):

The investigation to date has found that transactions regularly moved between accounts and that funds believed to be in excess of segregation requirements in the commodities segregated accounts were used to fund other daily activities of MF Global. In the past, such transfers were in amounts of less than $50 million, but as liquidity demands increased and could not be met from internal sources, much larger amounts were used, apparently with the assumption that funds would be restored by the end of the day. By Wednesday, October 26th, as the result of increasing demands for funds or collateral throughout MF Global, funds did not return as anticipated.

Recognize that some may interpret this statement as an admission that fraud regularly occurred at MF Global.  The unambiguous statement by the customer’s trustee clearly states that the provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) designed to protect customer funds were likely routinely violated, and knowingly so .  Yet, neither he nor anyone else in the know can so much as hint at fraud?

In the report, Mr. Giddens falls back on the chaos angle, stating, “As these withdrawals occurred, a lack of intraday accounting visibility existed, caused in part by the volume of transactions being executed…”  One has to read between the lines here, because based on Giddens’ prior disclosures, the primary cause of the lack of accounting visibility was the habitual violation of CEA regulations, but this is not mentioned–only the sheer “volume of transactions.”

One of Several Smoking Guns Being Ignored?

Back to the WSJ article, in what might be construed by some as covering tracks, it then quotes the back office staff as saying they noticed a mistake and then tried to reverse it.  If this were a crime, the mastermind might be saying right now, here’s what you tell them: “Oops, we just transferred $165 million from customer segregated funds to JP Morgan.  I hate it when that happens.  And because this case is a SIPA/Chapter 11 bankruptcy, we can engineer the process so that fraud is not investigated from the start and MF Global customers have no claw back rights.  The money stays at JP Morgan.”  And, as was reported in the press early in the bankruptcy, customers will have to be happy with sharing whatever might be recovered from the estate.

“Midlevel finance officials usually couldn’t move such funds without direction from more senior officials,” the article continues.  This is the essential point.  It is the author’s speculation that at some point there was likely an order from one of the big three in MF Global – Mr. Corzine, COO Bradley Abelow and/or CFO Henri Steenkamp.  Given the $6.3 billion trade in risky sovereign debt was known as the “Corzine trade,” the risk allocation of the trade that put the customer broker unit on the hook for all losses could be characterized as “his brainchild.”  Further, in all likelihood it was Mr. Corzine who had key trade management relationships with JP Morgan, and it might be assumed he had awareness of $165 million being sent to the firm.  Any mid level investigator might rightfully conclude that Mr. Corzine’s knowledge of the money transfer was highly likely, if not based on his actual instruction.

At the very least, MF Global’s internal controls were sorely lacking in design and implementation, and anyone who signed off on them, including Mr. Corzine and PricewaterhouseCoopers, may eventually have to answer for these alleged transgressions.

The article further revealed interesting developments at J.P. Morgan:

“JP Morgan also has been questioned about the $165 million transfer, according to a person familiar with the matter. Four days before MF Global filed for bankruptcy protection, the company’s brokerage unit borrowed the same amount using a secured credit facility led by J.P. Morgan. The loan was paid back the next day, this person said. It couldn’t be determined if the loan and transfer were related.”

These types of relationships and apparent cozy transfer of money between two entities highly related to the process warrant clear explanation before calling the case cold.  However, such explanation might be rather difficult given the fact that neither MF Global senior management nor key people in the back office have been questioned by investigators.

But that is only if fraud is investigated.  Remember, in the MF Global case there is not even the apparent suspicion of fraud.  No reason for any serious investigation into this story.

To quote the classic movie Wizard of Oz: “Ignore the man behind the Curtin.”  Ignore MF Global everyone.  There isn’t a story here


####

Article written by Mark Melin http://www.Twitter.com/markmelin with Bob English www.economicpolicyjournal.com with thanks to others who contributed.


http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/doubtful-signs-of-a-criminal-case-against-mf-global/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/09/us-mfglobal-idUSTRE8181UB20120209

http://www.apcoworldwide.com/content/locations/Keystaffbio.aspx?FName=Kent&LName=Jarrell&Office=washington_dc

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45069597/ns/business-us_business/t/mf-global-clients-face-shortfall-despite-protections/#.T1Sl9PVm6f4

Managed Futures 2012 Outlook / 2011 Review

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

You’ve gotten it from everywhere else- the hot shot managers, institutional titans and talking heads on CNBC have all weighed in on where they think 2012 will take investors. Now, it’s our turn in what has become our most read newsletter – the annual Attain Capital look back/peer forward – the 2012 Managed Futures Outlook and 2011 Review. We may be a few weeks late to the party, but the wait was worth it, as the added time meant more data and more interesting conclusions overall.

If 2008 was the managed futures party year, 2009 was the “hangover”, where the big drop in volatility following the historic 2008 volatility caused managed futures losses, and 2010 the “rebound” year, where managed futures avoided putting in back to back losing years. 2011 can best be described as “a whole lot of nothing.” There were ups, there were downs, and managed futures programs tried to capitalize on both side of these moves. But in the end, none of the moves extended far enough for managed futures to profit substantially from, leaving gains here, losses there, and so on. In short, a whole lot of nothing.

What trading atmosphere generated these results? Can we expect more of the same in 2012, or will the tides turn? To find out our take on what is in store for Managed Futures in the new year, click through.

To read more Managed Futures research pieces, visit Attain’s Managed Futures Newsletter archive and our Managed Futures Blog.

DISCLAIMER

Forex trading, commodity trading, managed futures, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors.

The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times- enjoyment of the world of alternative investments through managed futures, trading systems, and managed forex.  Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts.

The mention of asset class performance is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.) , and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices:  such as survivorship and self reporting biases, and instant history.

Managed Futures Disclaimer:

Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.

Copyright © 2011 Attain Capital Management, licensed Managed Futures, Trading System & Commodity Brokers. All Rights Reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Sold Out: How A Private Meeting Between Regulators Gave Away MF Global Segregated Account Protections

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012


(Note: This is the first of three articles that details questionable, behind the scenes meetings and special treatment that negatively impacted investor protections.  This first article details a critical meeting where core investor protections were jeopardized.  The second article details tampering of critical MF Global documents at the SEC.  The third article provides names, dates and topics of critical meetings that took place between government regulators and Mr. Corzine that likely influenced the outcome of regulatory action.)

In Closed Door Meeting Preceding Bankruptcy Filing, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs Granted Superiority over MF Global Segregated Accounts

Move Jeopardized Integrity of Futures Markets while Top CFTC Officials Acted As Idle Bystander

(Chicago) It seems ironic that after all is said and done, it was a hasty conference call between government regulators on October 31, 2011 that sealed the fate of MF Global segregated account protections – and plaaced in jeopardy the integrity of the futures markets.

A key legal protection providing security to the account segregation process appears to have been given away in a closed door meeting between the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).  Early in the MF Global bankruptcy process, before even the first court filing, decisions were made that resulted in weakening the core integrity of the futures markets at its most fundamental level.

It was here a little discussed legal technicality usurped the common bankruptcy code, which has very specific language in it protecting MF Global segregated account holders.  The common bankruptcy code has the iron clad protections for segregated accounts built in. It is upon this very foundation that the integrity of the futures markets and its “segregated account comes before all else” claim rests.

This core protection was given away in a closed door meeting between the SEC and CFTC. This article provides details of the closed door meeting, including meeting participants and the profound impact the meeting has on the very integrity of the futures markets.

In this meeting, which is said to have taken place via conference call early on the morning of October 31, an SEC official made the discretionary decision to engage in what is known as a SIPA liquidation process written for the securities industry.  While it may seem absurd, this liquidation process wasn’t designed or written for a futures brokerage, which has very unique needs in a liquidation.  But here is where the technical detail becomes the devil:

In a SIPA liquidation creditors are afforded legal superiority over segregated accounts.

To read the full article click here.

Mark H. Melin is currently writing his fourth book on uncorrelated investing.  He is previous author / editor of three books, including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley, 2010) and an adjunct instructor in managed futures at Northwestern University.  He can be reached at markhmelin (at) gmail.com

Risk Disclosure: Managed futures can be a volatile investment and is not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, may not have considered all risk factors and may not be appropriate for all investors.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cftc-still-trying-to-explain-mf-customer-shortfall-2011-11-03

Mathema’s 2012 Global Investment Outlook

Monday, January 9th, 2012

In its outlook for the hedge fund industry in 2012, research firm Mathema says as global macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, hedge funds might be challenged by asset outflows in the new year. Additionally, flat-to-negative performance in 2011 may carry over into 2012, potentially leading to attrition in the ranks of sub-$200 million AUM firms.

“Overall, with a short-term investment perspective we mainly remain positive on two hedge fund substrategies (fixed-income arbitrage and mortgage-backed securities/asset-backed securities arbitrage) due to distress in global financial markets and a series of technical risks affecting the hedge fund industry.”

Read the entire report below.

global-investment-outlook-report-december-2011

Legality of MF Global Asset Transfer to JP Morgan Questioned

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Commodity Customer Coalition founder James Koutoulas is requesting that MF Global bankruptcy Judge Martin Glenn investigate three potential legal issues that are said to have occurred in transferring of MF Global assets.  The key issues include the fact that JP Morgan was able to purchase MF Global bonds at a discount without any open bidding process and the assets were apparently sold without disclosure to or approval from the U.S. bankruptcy court or trustees.  The third issue centers on JP Morgan seeking special favors from the Federal Reserve to receive priority treatment over investor segregated fund accounts.

The first such non-transparent movement of assets occurred when JP Morgan is said to have purchased MF Global’s Sovereign Debt at a significant discount without an open bidding process, paying $0.89 and later selling that debt to investor George Soros for $0.95.  No one is going to complain about JP Morgan generating profit.  However, purchasing assets of a bankrupt firm without an open bidding process or disclosure to the bankruptcy court and trustees is where JP Morgan may be in trouble, according to Mr. Koutoulas.  This sale could be subject to clawback provisions, legal experts speculate.  (On December 9, 2011 The Wall Street Journal reported the fact that bonds were moved to KPMG London office, which was the bankruptcy administrator, but at the time the article did not discuss sale details or approval through the bankruptcy process.  See “Corzine’s Loss May Be Soros’s Gain” by Gregory Zuckerman and Dana Cimilluca.)

The key issue is that such transfers is the bonds were purchased at a discount without open bidding and the process was not disclosed to or authorized by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, according to Mr. Koutoulas.  “Who gave JP Morgan permission to purchase those bonds at a discount without open bidding?”

The second questionable movement of assets is said to have occurred when JP Morgan purchased MF Global’s stake in the London Metals Exchange (LME) without proper disclosure.  The event was widely reported at a basic level on November 28, 2011.  The larger issue, however, appears to center on the fact that such a transaction was not approved by the U.S. bankruptcy court and trustee.

“Was this disclosed in court?” Mr. Koutoulas rhetorically asked.  “No.  Was their trustee approval?  No.”

The third issue occurred in congressional testimony Thursday, December 15, 2011 where it was discovered JP Morgan asked the Federal Reserve to write a letter claiming that the segregated funds should not be categorized as client money.

“How many letters like this have they asked for in the past?  I want all the statistics regarding the number and content of letters,” Koutoulas questioned.  “JP Morgan wanted a ‘get out of jail free card’ from the Fed.  Guess what?  That doesn’t fly with me.”

“Their hubris is so severe.  They think we don’t know the industry, like we are Occupy Wall Street radicals or something and don’t have a clue or message,” Mr. Koutoulas said, noting that the CCC is comprised of experienced industry participants who understand the financial services industry from the inside.

Mr. Koutoulas seeks to solve the problem with JP Morgan without dragging the issue through court.  In speaking to JP Morgan, Mr. Koutoulas said “Listen, you are buying vulture MF Global claims at $0.86 œ on the dollar.   Why don’t you pay a fair price of $0.97 œ take the customers out of the bankruptcy and we will indemnify you from any class actions resulting from this.”  A vulture claim occurs when an MF Global claimant such as a farmer or small business person is in desperate need of cash and sells their claim to someone such as JP Morgan, who purchases the claim at a lower rate than the value at maturity.  In this example if JP Morgan purchased the claim at $0.87 and all clients were eventually “made good” JP Morgan would receive the par value of $1.00.  With the MF Global bankruptcy proceedings apparently moving along much quicker than expected, JP Morgan stands to potentially make a quick 13% return on such vulture claims.

Mr. Koutoulas reports that JP Morgan would not even discuss the issues.  “I can see that you disagree with me,” said Mr. Koutoulas, whose organization represents over 7,000 MF Global clients, mostly professional investors.  “They won’t even meet with me and talk with me.”

Mr. Koutoulas is currently working Pro Bono and many of the lawyers are working at a highly discounted rates and requested that industry participants donate to help .  “I need professional litigators and bankruptcy attorneys backing me up,” said Northwestern Law School grad Koutoulas who also operates Typhon Capital Management, which is an NFA-registered Commodity Trading Advisor and Commodity Pool Operator.  ”We’ve had an outpouring of lawyers who want to help,” Mr. Koutoulas said, sitting with a young Yale Law School grad as we spoke.

In calling on MF Global presiding bankruptcy Judge Glenn to investigate these issues, Mr. Koutoulas is rallying the futures industry to boycott use of JP Morgan.  “Call your FCM and if they are using JP Morgan say ‘We won’t do business with you if you work with JP Morgan,’” he said, requesting that industry participants get on Twitter and follow the #BoycottJPM hash tag.

For additional information on the Commodity Customer Coalition visit www.CommodityCustomerCoalition.org and on Twitter use hash tag #boycottJPM

For a related radio interview: http://bit.ly/vGsnh2

Mark H. Melin is author / editor of three books, including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley, 2010) [http://amzn.to/vyonBA] and was an adjunct instructor in managed futures at Northwestern University.  Follow him on Twitter @MarkMelin or visit www.Go2ManagedFutures.com for additional information.

Risk Disclosure: Managed futures can be a volatile investment and is not appropriate for all investors.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, may not have considered all risk factors and may not be appropriate for all investors.




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