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Archive for the ‘Hedge Fund Research’ Category

CTAs / CPOs Call For Industry Leadership in Survey

Thursday, March 21st, 2013

The fastest growing segment of the financial services industry was the one hardest hit by MF Global’s suspicious demise and overt fraud at Peregrine Financial Group (PFG).

The managed futures industry, which had grown from $14 billion under management in 1991 to over $329 billion to end 2012, was a shining star of the new economy. Offering the unique ability to zig when other investments zagged, the lack of correlation and performance during crisis were key points of attraction. This attraction came to a screeching halt with the MF Global and PFG criminal incidents. Not only were investors getting acquainted with the asset class shocked to learn their accounts were looted of assets, but more troubling criminal behavior appeared the cause - casting a shadow over all participants.

“There is a severe loss of trust, a loss of confidence. There is incredible anger and frustration. Things need to change,” said Diane Mix Birnberg, president of Horizon Cash Management. Her firm just released a study, The Aftermath of MF Global and Peregrine Financial Group Meltdowns: A Crisis of Trust, showing that a whopping 91% of respondents believed there was a breakdown in audit procedures.

The study themes that emerged included:

  • The laws and rules that govern the industry need to have ‘teeth’ – and those involved in fraud and theft need to be punished.
  • Customer segregated funds must either be kept completely out of the FCM and/or be verified in real-time by regulators.

A strong and rare female voice inside a Type A male dominated industry, Ms Birnberg’s firm, Horizon Cash Management, has become the top cash management firm for participants in the managed futures industry. Starting in the 1970s as a secretary in a stock brokerage firm in Atlanta, where “women generally didn’t think about career aspirations,” she later joined Lehman Brothers in the bond business. After moving to New York City to work on Wall Street, she was recruited in 1980 by investors to operate a cash management firm in the futures industry and in 1991 founded Horizon Cash Management, which currently has $2 billion under management.

In MF Global “there was very little institutional leadership (from exchanges, regulators and major firms),” she said. “This resulted in rumor, innuendo and ultimately a lack of trust. The void in leadership is terrifying.”

Looking back on the MF Global and PFG disasters, Ms. Birnberg has the experience of witnessing 10 FCM implosions. “In every FCM implosion it has negatively touched the CTA / CPO segment of the industry.”

“Think about a plane crash,” she said. “When it happens? Key issues and facts are addressed by the airline, the FAA and even the US president. Information is available regarding what happened, why it happened and steps being taken to address the problem.”

With MF Global a plane crashed and there was silence.

This is the first part of a two part article.

Mark Melin is author of three books and taught a managed futures course for Northwestern University’s Executive Education program. To read additional blog posts visit www.UncorrelatedInvestments.com (requires free registration).

DePaul University Offers Managed Futures Course

Saturday, March 16th, 2013

Picture Mark Shore, Adjunct Professor of managed futures at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago and 25 year veteran of the futures industry notes increased interest in managed futures for the last several years.

“Assets under management in managed futures have increased nearly 63% since 2008, and over 700% since 2000 according to BarclayHedge.” To help explain the managed futures message, Shore announced DePaul University will once again offer a graduate level managed futures course in the spring.

As the demand for asset allocation education and alternative investment education increases, Shore notes, “individual & institutional investors and the graduate students are asking more questions about managed futures, a topic often found unfamiliar to many.”

Does the recent market volatility increase the interest to understand managed futures?  “The abnormal market volatility in recent years has a number of investors increasingly questioning the core principles behind a diversified investment portfolio, he said. “What’s needed is a greater understanding of dynamic correlation and tail risk.”

Read More

Copyright ©2013 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 25 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro Mark is a contributing writer to Reuters HedgeWorld, the CBOE Futures Exchange and Micro-Cap Review.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Understanding Managed Futures Market Environments and Macro Performance Drivers

Saturday, March 9th, 2013

Although it hasn’t been written about nor formally discussed, understanding a managed futures investment from the standpoint of market environments and macro performance drivers first solves many problems for asset managers.

· It enables a quick description of the investment to provide the investor and understanding of how beta performance is generated

· Allows the asset manager to establish logical performance expectations in two sentences

· Sets up further structural analysis with performance measures relative to the strategy

· It enables logical strategic correlation consideration

· It explains how and why the investment operates

How Beta Performance Drivers Work

Each of the primary managed futures strategies have an environment in which they are expected to find success and relative failure.

For instance, several strategies are based on the market environment of price persistence.  These include trend following, breakout, momentum among the many similar named strategies.

Other strategies are based on the market environment of relative price divergence and then convergence back to a statistical mean.  These include relative value, arbitrage and strategies based on how pricing of one asset relates to a related asset.

Strategies based on the market environment of volatility utilize options and have a different set of considerations depending on the specific strategy type.

Describing The Investment

The first step in the analysis process is to identify this beta performance factor, which leads to an understanding of performance generation factors and can assist in setting expectations.  Using the market environment performance driver, an asset manager may describe the investment as such:

“This trend following program has a macro performance driver of price persistence.  It is expected to prosper when the price of a given asset moves in one consistent direction.”

In two sentences, the investor can set macro performance expectations when the investment should and should not work, as well as provide the core strategic logic as to why the investment is so uncorrelated to that of the stock market.

Performance Measures Relative to Strategy

Another reason to understand the performance driver concept is that the performance measures should be relative to each strategy.  For instance, trade time frame might be given a different weighting in a trend following program than certain volatility programs.  Expected margin to equity usage, win percentage and correlation to the equity markets during times of crisis are all examples of performance measures that are different relative to each strategy.

The important takeaway is with each performance driver, the relative alpha strategy considerations of the managers can vary.  Thus starting at the high level and working downward is most appropriate.

Mark Melin is author of three books, including High Performance Managed Futures, taught a course for Northwestern University’s executive education program and edits the web site www.Uncorrelated-Investements.com.  Entire contents Copyright (C) Mark Melin 2013

Will a New High Frequency Trading Definition Emerge from CFTC?

Friday, March 1st, 2013

How does one define a previously un-definable topic such as High Frequency Trading (HFT)?

Sources close to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicate new thinking may be underway regarding the topic of High Frequency Trading (HFT). Speculation is this thinking could look at the relative market impact HFT may have in a given market move as a legal definition. Such a definition could consider the relative impact of a particular HFT player as a percentage of a market damaging move and could be used for potential CFTC action on the issue. This new thinking could be outlined sometime in March, sources said.

Current US regulation regarding HFT is considered by some market participants to be behind the curve relative to the European Union. In the EU, for instance, algorithm type is used as an identifier to determine market participant behavior during crisis conditions.

“There is significant uneasiness on the speed in markets,” noted Vassilis Vergotis, Executive Vice President, Head of Eurex, Americas.

For the full article, visit the source web site (requires free registration): http://www.uncorrelatedinvestments.com/blog/?p=59

Mark H. Melin is author of several books, including High Performance Managed Futures and taught on the topic at Northwestern University’s Executive Education program

Mathema’s May 2012 Global Investment Insight Report

Thursday, July 26th, 2012

Mathema took a look at April 2012 hedge fund performance and saw increasing correlation, which the research firm pointed out essentially offset the benefits of diversification. Read the entire May report below.

Mathema May 2012 Global Investment Insight Report

Why Government Debt Isn’t Going Away Any Time Soon - And What It Means For Investors

Monday, June 4th, 2012

We find ourselves living in historic times along many fronts.

At a recent campaign event, presidential hopeful Mitt Romney took a hard look at the reality of government debt, noting that the thorny crisis caused by perpetual can kicking will likely be faced by our kids in the near future.

While Mr. Romney is right to address the seriousness of the government debt issue, he may be slightly off on the timing of this trade. While he anticipates the debt crisis to require attention “by our kids,” mathematical logic might indicate the problem could fester in the very near future – potentially in three to five years in the United States, according to some projections. The mathematical logic indicates that the over expansive monetary policy that lead governments to embrace expenditures significantly higher than their revenues is coming to an end. Greece is example A of a society that received a natural margin call. With debt to GDP breaking into triple digits, investors might take note that all governments will likely receive their “margin call” at some point. The question is, when?

Republican Congressman Paul Ryan (Wisconsin) may have corrected Romney’s timing. Speaking on Meet the Press on Sunday, May 20, Representative Ryan called for a potential US debt crisis in two to four years. This coincides with other credible projections. “We could have a debt crisis in (the US in) 2-3 years absent action,” observed David Walker, former US Controller General and head of the Government Accountability Office (GAO). “There is a lot of irony and hypocrisy in Washington’s desire to make sure that JP Morgan has proper risk management practices,” Mr. Walker added, noting a general lack of appropriate risk management in government regarding deficit spending and leverage usage. Mr. Walker has been the early leader in speaking to the mathematical logic of a coming debt crisis, a message that few care to hear.

Making the required difficult and unpopular political decisions required to fix the debt problem will require significant political will. David Gregory of NBC’s Meet The Press noted this in his May 20, 2012 grilling of Republican Congressman Paul Ryan and Democratic Senator Dick Durbin. This is because over-leveraged governments have really two choices, neither of which are positive. In other words, there are no easy answers to the debt problem, only “worse and worser,” as author John Mauldin is so fond to point out the harsh reality.

What is the mathematical and practical logic behind a two to three year debt crisis projection?

Here is the reality, the wakeup call: In the United States, a demographic shift in three to five years is about to strain budgets as the government continues to spend nearly double its revenue. This is well documented in a Bloomberg BusinessWeek article written July 27, 2011. This demographic shift occurs when baby booming seniors retire in historic numbers, straining government benefits. This strain may occur the same time interest rates have risen, as a once infallible fiat currency discovers its fallibility. This strains a budget just when expenditures are running nearly double revenues. That’s the mathematical logic, one potential outcome. But the undeniable truth is that deficit spending such as being exhibited by government would be alarming on any balance sheet, but the fact that it isn’t even being addressed in a serious fashion is troubling, the root cause of the debt crisis.

Consider Greece from the basic perspective of their out of control leverage usage, with government spending well beyond revenues for years. When asked to face the economic problem and address the core structural issues through austerity – the widely unpopular `political choice – politicians prefer to kick the can down the road. The problem Greek political leaders face is they have just discovered the limits of how far the can kicking can last.

Is Greece a “One Off?”

When investors take a pure mathematical look at the structural problems, similar core issues appear in other over-leveraged western societies. Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, to name a few, all have the same structural spending problem, which could come to a head shortly. And from a mathematical perspective similar problems exist with the government who currently holds the reserve currency of choice status. At a basic level an understanding needs to take place that the root of the difficult problem is spending must be cut and revenues need to be increased. This will become a political football, a tug of war of epic proportion.

Will False “Growth” Through Easy Monetary Policy Solve the Problem?

In the past, the easy solution for government has been to stimulate growth through quantitative easing. Such tactics of “adding liquidity” typically work well early in a debt cycle but have less impact the more they are used. An example of this in the US can be found by examining the significant impact of an easy monetary policy during the 1980s and contrasting this to the relatively diminishing return on “growth” that today’s quantitative easing has on the economy. If one were a trader looking at the debt crisis they might conclude the significant risk of adding leverage to the government debt trade might not be worth the diminishing reward.

The key for investors is to recognize that the market environment to which western economies are headed may require difficult political solutions, which will not be easily solved without volatility. This could lead to a very different economic environment to which investors should be prepared to defend against. Economic environments that perhaps could be punctuated with bouts of volatility with strong market price trends emerging both positive and negative.

To read the entire article, click here

Mark Melin will be speaking on a panel at HedgeWorld June 6 @ 1:30 regarding MF Global. Click here for the agenda.

About the Author: Mark Melin is host of the internet video show Uncorrelated Investing and editor of Opalesque Futures Intelligence, a newsletter written for professional investors that covers investments in the futures and options industry. A futures industry practitioner and consultant, Mark has taught managed futures as an adjunct instructor at Northwestern University / Chicago and has written or edited three books, including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008). Mark has worked as a consultant to the Chicago Board of Trade and OneChicago, the single stock futures exchange. He was director of the managed futures division at Alaron Trading until they were acquired by Peregrine Financial Group in 2009. Mark worked with Peregrine Financial Group until 2011.

All contents copyright 2011 © Mark H. Melin all rights reserved.

Risk Disclosure: This article is intended for educational and informational purposes. Past performance is not always indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Managed futures investing can involve volatility and may not be appropriate for all investors. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, they are not appropriate for all investors and may not have considered all risk factors.

Surprise: Q1 13Fs show lots of hedge fund love for Apple; financials not so much

Friday, May 25th, 2012

Street of Walls is out with its latest analysis of hedge fund SEC Form 13F filings. As we have point out previously, the 13F filings are an interesting, if incomplete, trailing indicator of hedge fund sentiment. Nevertheless, it makes for good reading and the Street of Walls folks do a nice job digging through them and synthesizing what they find.

Here are the highlights of their report:

- The most crowded new ideas during the quarter were AAPL, GOOG, WYNN, and HCA. Other new positions shared among hedge funds but with less overlap were PCLN, DTV, LBTYA, SHW, ANV, NFLX, VRSN, SHW, TRIP, and SIRI.
- Excluding large allocation from Hayman, Financials saw a -2.0% decline in sector exposures. Low rates and mortgage related put-back problems in Financials may have led managers to trim and exit positions within the space throughout 2011 and into 2012.
- We found a majority of hedge funds largest positions were shared amongst the hedge funds in our universe. AAPL was by far the most crowded position in the top 12 holdings for hedge funds: Greenlight, Lone Pine, Appaloosa, Maverick, Passport, Blue Ridge, Coatue, and Tiger all have AAPL as one of the largest position in their holdings. Other large crowded positions include GOOG, ESRX, DLPH, QCOM, and C.
- On average the funds listed below bought companies with a 2012 forward price to earnings ratio of 17.5x vs. 18.6x last quarter. Appaloosa and Baupost bought into the higher valuation stocks at 47.4x and 27.9x respectively while Glenview and Hayman bought into much lower valuations at 12.4x and 11.8x respectively.

To read the full report at streetofwalls.com, click here.

Absolute hedge fund returns trail equities in first quarter

Tuesday, April 24th, 2012

Hedge fund strategies tracked by the Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index trailed equity returns in the first quarter of 2012, but if investors knew where to look there were some individual funds that outperformed.

For instance, Global Macro managers as a whole returned 1.58% on an absolute basis in the Jan. 1 to March 31 period, below the 4.04% return of the broad hedge fund index and the 12.59% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index. However all of the funds in the top-10 for global macro as tracked by Dow Jones Credit Suisse outperformed not only the broader hedge fund index, but the S&P 500 as well (see chart below).

The full chart—including top absolute return data for Convertible Arbitrage, Dedicated Short Bias, Emerging Markets, Equity Market Neutral, Event Driven, Fixed Income Arbitrage, and Long/Short Equity Hedge—is available to HedgeWorld Premium Plus members here. It comes out monthly, as do charts covering top risk-adjusted performance, top fund-of-funds performance and index and sub-index net performance. If you don’t have a Premium Plus membership, click here to find out how to get one: hedgeworld.com/membership/.

Mathema Hedge Fund Strategy Insight Report for March 2012

Tuesday, March 20th, 2012

In its latest Hedge Fund Strategies Review Report, research firm Mathema finds that far from being the success story that central bankers claim, the same euro zone problems that emerged in the summer of 2011 have escalated due to “creeping liquidity bubbles that have been supporting risky assets since January.”

Among Mathema’s other findings:

- Central Banks’ ammunitions finally came to an end: ECB’s LTRO program and “anticipated” QE3 in the US look the ultimate tentative to support the market through injection of liquidity. Going forward the
macro picture should reflect fundamental factors rather than political biases.

- Hedge Fund managers found relief in the removal of short-selling restrictions in EU Countries. Abundant liquidity supports the long side of the trades, M&A, and shares’ buy-backs. Deep-recession, contagion risk & crowded trades into high-yielding names might trigger tail risks
on the downside.

- Markets display a two-sided scenario: carry-trade fuels risky assets (borrowing EUR and USD at historical low rates and then invest into cash-rich and high-dividend yield companies) and real-money still secured into gold and safe currencies.

- Whatever new bubbles will be created in the future the time machine has not been invented yet. Postponing actions (wasting time) is not the equivalent to jumping into the future. All these measures cannot skip the real problems, and the longer the time lost before fixing the problems the greater the pain will be.

- In the last two months we have upgraded a number of strategies. Nonetheless, in the short-term we remain positive on two hedge fund sub-strategies only - fixed-income arbitrage and equity market-neutral.

Read the entire report by clicking on the link below (PDF).

Mathema March 2012 Hedge Fund Strategy Iinsight Report

Do They Think We Are Stupid? “Mr. Vaporized” of MF Global Fame Un-masked?

Thursday, March 8th, 2012

(What follows is the authors individual speculation.  Written by Mark Melin with Bob English.  To download a PDF version of this article, visit  http://www.go2managedfutures.com/Vaporized.pdf)

Sometimes you wonder if we’re living in an alternate universe.

Recent news reports that cite un-named sources and indicate the MF Global criminal case has “gone cold” are curious.  In fact, these news reports are even more bizarre than previous reports claiming MF Global client funds have simply “vaporized.”  A pattern of behavior and reporting appears to be emerging that supports one overall goal: push the MF Global story under the radar, avoiding serious investigation and keep the inner workings and questionable circumstances surrounding a historic event out of public view and understanding. This, in turn, paves the way for MF Global creditors to legally swoop in on what rightfully belongs to the customers.

The “vaporized” and “case gone cold” news reports all convey a common underlying message: no one is responsible for what is now estimated as the loss of $1.6 billion taken from customer segregated accounts.  There was no criminal activity.  The message seems to instruct people to “mind their own business, keep quiet and just ignore what is the 8th largest bankruptcy in US history, a scandal tainted with fraud allegations that involves a man who is arguably the most politically connected Wall Street insider to ever walk among the backroom corridors of Washington DC.”  Yet, by not officially using the “f” word (fraud), regulators, trustees, prosecutors and the rest of the panoply of public “protectors” make it more likely that the recipients, such as JP Morgan, of hundreds of millions in transfers of customer money in MF Global’s final days will simply get to keep it.  The core integrity of the commodity markets has been destroyed and an “industry of investor protections” with an exemplary regulatory record for protecting customer funds, now demands a rewrite.

This is the story we are supposed not to discuss? Is it really too complicated for mere mortals to understand?

Explaining a Complex Story with a Simple Analogy

One critical goal among those on the side of JP Morgan and other creditors is that they are attempting to confuse the issue, so it helps to start with a simple analogy of what occurred.

Imagine for a moment that MF Global was your bank. One day you woke up and discovered that the account holding your college savings was gone. Poof! The money in your retirement accounts and related checking accounts had just been “vaporized.” You go to ask the bank where you money is and you are locked out of the bank while strangers who are not depositors are allowed to enter and take assets from the bank, including the contents of the “safe” deposit boxes. You finally hear from the bank and the authorities, who essentially say that while they can see all the transactions of the bank over the last month, for some reason, there is just no longer any trace of the money, and no explanation of what happened. The funds just “vaporized.”  And after a few weeks of minimal information dribbles, you hear the search has gone cold.  You are told the money disappeared in a chaotic tsunami of transactions and there is no evidence of any criminal actions.  But, if money happens to get found, you might get some of it.  Oh, and the contents of your safe deposit box are going to be auctioned off, with only a portion of the funds returned to you (this was the fate of the unlucky souls who held gold and silver bars on deposit in their own name with MF Global).  That’s all…talk to you later. Good bye and good luck.

How would you react? Would the notion that your money “vaporized” elicit outrage?

Welcome to the MF Global case, one that is currently being swept into the tangle of questionable bankruptcy litigation and under the media rug.

In Criminal Investigations, Shouldn’t The Witnesses to a Crime And Suspects Be Interviewed Before a Case “Goes Cold”

In the case of MF Global, claims of customer “seg funds” being “vaporized” and the “case going cold” are made without investigators interrogating the primary suspect and individual in charge, former MF Global and Goldman Sachs President, New Jersey Senator & Governor, Jon Corzine.   As the New York Times reported last week, “
authorities have yet to interview key witnesses — including a person who is believed to have transferred client funds in the firm’s final days.”  Yet around the same time, Reuters reports:  “Criminal Probe Trial going cold at MF Global.”

One would, of course, think a “case gone cold” proclamation is made only after investigators have finished examining all evidence, and only after questioning the primary suspect and all witnesses.  That’s not the case – investigators claim they haven’t finished reviewing documents, but they are pretty sure the “case is cold.” Further, and as an aside, Mr. Freeh, trustee for MF Global Holdings has agreed to release documents from October 17th going forward, but nothing from before that date.  Why would a US Trustee, under the authority of the Department of Justice, withhold anything needed for the investigation? (Many questions regarding Mr. Freeh’s appointment as trustee, and who recommended that appointment, are not being addressed in this document.)

Is this the information the financial services industry is asked to accept and then “vaporize” from its collective mind?

The “vaporized propaganda campaign” is a well-coordinated effort intended to confuse, divert and distract from the truth surrounding the crime of taking over a billion of customer funds.  That’s the goal. In fact, it’s impressive how “Mr. Vaporized” has managed to keep this case out of the news so well.

How  “Vaporized” and “Mr. Vaporized” Entered the Picture

On January 24, 2012 a jarring news leak, first reported by Wall Street Journal reporters Scott Patterson and Aaron Lucchetti, was said to come from sources close to judicial proceedings.  The report made the now famous claim that MF Global customer funds had simply “vaporized.” After months of rapt attention to the question of “where’s the money,” those in the media still paying attention were now told the money just simply disappeared without a trace! Poof!

After initial, and inaccurate speculation, a potential source for the leak emerged and was summarily dubbed “Mr. Vaporized.” It is the author’s speculation that “Mr. Vaporized” is none other than Kent Jarrell, the third party media management consultant hired by customer trustee James Giddens.  When reached for comment Mr. Jarrell responded “I have no idea where that word ‘vaporized’ originated from and I don’t know what you are talking about.”

Mr. Jarrell is a highly connected Washington DC media operative, who works for APCO Worldwide, a marketing, brand management and public relations firm with significant experience in “community relations” and strategic media planning.  Mr. Jarrell is director of APCO’s Washington, D.C.-based litigation communication practice.  The firm’s web site states “He advises CEOs, general counsels and boards of directors on preparation for unfolding material events.”  And that, “He currently 
advises the trustee in the liquidation of Lehman Brothers Inc.” Attorney James Giddens is also the Lehman Brothers Liquidation Trustee, a case in which $160 million was said to have been billed by trustees in legal fees.

Mr. Jarrell’s role in MF Global has been limited to communications regarding the liquidation and bankruptcy, as well as controlling the message and public expectations. Early in the process, Mr. Jarrell relayed a message through the media to MF Global clients that they should be prepared to “share” the MF Global proceeds with creditors such as JP Morgan.  The message further stated that customers would only receive on a pro rata basis what is “identified by the trustee as available for distribution.”  Further, that “The trustee then would be unlikely to find much value within the estate to pay back commodities customers, unless he can locate the missing cash,” noted a Reuters article.

In previous cases where futures brokers failed, the customer accounts were either transferred to another broker prior to a bankruptcy filing or the customers were afforded priority protection above all other claims in the bankruptcy process, in accordance with the Commodity Exchange Act.   (That customers are not first is only so because of the curious way in which the bankruptcy and liquidation were structured by the regulators and MF Global execs in the first place.   The parent holdings company filed under Chapter 11, generally used for reorganizations—not liquidations—and the broker unit was forced into a SIPA liquidation by the Securities and Exchange Commission.  This decision has been a highly debated topic, as the 99% of accounts that were futures customers were afforded no insurance under SIPA and no protections from bankruptcy that fall under the Commodity Exchange Act.  All in all, another MF Global mystery.)

On October 31, 2011, the day of the filings (or, perhaps even before), MF Global and its regulators may have planned such a structure to put customers on the same footing as creditors.   Whatever went on in those closed door meetings, these reports of a new set of rules came as yet another shock to futures industry participants.

How Stupid Do They Think We Are?

Rules of propaganda teach us that if you repeat something long enough, no matter how absurd, it will eventually be believed.  Multiple sources and narratives have parroted the thematic evolution: there was an unknown amount of missing money, which became money that had somehow disappeared, and finally an investigation gone cold, setting the stage for customers to expect less than 100% of their money back.

In an article dated January 30, 2012, The Wall Street Journal reported “a ‘significant amount’ of the money could have ‘vaporized’ as a result of chaotic trading at MF Global during the week before the company’s Oct. 31 bankruptcy filing, said a person close to the investigation.” It is interesting to note the phrase “a person close to the investigation” might indicate someone associated with court proceedings or grand jury proceedings.

Is anyone so stupid to believe that customer funds held in a segregated account could simply “vaporize?”  Yet sources quoted in the Wall Street Journal seem to believe that could be possible. The assertion was widely questioned by those with knowledge of the situation, including CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton and US Congressman Bill Posey.

Judging by reactions of expert industry participants on Twitter, the medium de jour for exchange among professionals in the futures industry, the outrageous stunt of the “vaporized” claim was met with shock and disbelief.  Knowledgeable industry participants understand there are special documentation requirements for 4-D and 30.7 customer funds and strict regulations that must be followed to move funds in such accounts.  Further, the brokers are subject to daily reporting requirements which, combined with the traditionally sacrosanct nature of segregated account protections, relentlessly drilled into industry participants, makes “mistakes” in this realm highly unlikely.

These claims of back office “mistakes” stand beside a less reported note. In sworn Congressional testimony CMEGroup Chairman Terry Duffy was clear.  Just before the bankruptcy, critical documents given to regulators by MF Global had been falsified.   Mr. Corzine’s sworn testimony had been called into question by an MF Global employee – an employee now potentially being prevented from talking, a story that needs to be told to prosecutors.  Not only has potential fraud been publically disclosed, but a web of fraud may lie underneath the 8th largest bankruptcy in US history.  But, as the propaganda campaign goes: Ignore MF Global.  No fraud investigation required here.

With informed participants now detecting that an obvious agenda was in play by the media sources close to the bankruptcy, the question becomes: why the focus on back office “mistakes” rather than investigate fraud?

Why Avoiding a Fraud Investigation Is So Critical: The Safe Harbor

If fraud is investigated in a bankruptcy it is much easier for illicit money transfers to be “clawed back” in Court through preference actions by the trustee.  Thus, in the case of MF Global, if $1.2 billion was wired out of MF Global to JPMorgan the week before the bankruptcy, this money could be safely returned to client segregated accounts.  If fraud is not investigated, if illicit money transfers will be allowed to move out of MF Global into JP Morgan, then JP Morgan keeps the money.

Speaking on Bloomberg Law, a web-based video program, editor at large Bill Rochelle was clear: “Here is (why fraud) is an important point in the bankruptcy process,” Rochelle continued.  “Congress passed what is known as a ‘safe harbor.’   What it says is the in a bankruptcy if money was paid in a stock transaction or if it was paid as margin, (MF Global account holders) can’t get it back.  The only way you can get money back in a case like that if (the money) disappeared as a result of actual fraud.  This report that the trustee was filing to me doesn’t sound like he (the trustee) is making a case for actual fraud, but rather (they are making a case for classical incompetence – and that may not be enough to get the money back,” which is a key point.  Legal sources independent of Mr. Rochelle say if fraud is involved in a bankruptcy case, MF Global customer rights could be enhanced.

Trustee Giddens Softens Up MF Global Customers to Take it on the Chin

On February 6, 2012, James W. Giddens, the MF Global broker unit Liquidation Trustee, who is statutorily tasked with obtaining as much recovery as possible for customers, released a preliminary status report.  In it, he sets the tone for ensuing media stories, toeing the “chaos and confusion” theme.    

In various places, the report implies a degree of certainty about the flow of funds in MF Global’s final days, such as, “The Trustee’s investigators have now traced a majority of the cash transactions, totaling more than $105 billion, made in and out of MFGI in the last week before bankruptcy and are completing the process of tracing the remaining transactions.”  And, “The Trustee has identified most of the parties that were the immediate recipients of transfers from MFGI during the final days and weeks of operation.”

Interspersed with these glimmers of hope, though, are statements about the reign of chaos, such as, “For three months the Trustee’s investigative team has worked to understand what happened during the final days of MF Global when cash and related securities movements were not always accurately and promptly recorded due to the chaotic situation and the complexity of the transactions.”  And, “The company’s computer systems and employees had difficulty keeping up with the unprecedented volume of transactions [in the final week]. A number of transactions were recorded erroneously or not at all.”

But, where subject and medium converge is in Trustee Giddens’ confusing representation of cash movements at the broker unit during the month of October, 2011:

Figure 1: Actual chart provided by Trustee to "simplify" MF Global money transfer. Could straight lines have been drawn between various parties?

Mainstream Media Starts to Find the Scent

It seemed that certain mainstream and alternative business journalists had begun to take an interest in the unusual circumstances of the case.  But the pattern of deception over truth would eventually persist, apparently taking a cue from Trustee Giddens’ early report about the back office.  Bloomberg’s Bill Rochelle noted the trustee’s report characterized MF Global management as simply having “lost control of the backroom.  The left hand didn’t know what the right hand was doing.  They were not recording transactions.  They (MF Global back office) ordinarily sometimes took out customer money but replaced it by the end of the day, but as the company was collapsing they weren’t able to.”

This characterization of MF Global back office behavior is noteworthy and requires critical examination.  Would back office testimony contradict these statements?  In fact, one familiar with MF Global operations and futures industry auditing procedures might express surprise at what was characterized as routine violations in back office behavior.  We may never know, because investigators have determined the case “is cold” before any investigation into what industry professionals consider highly unusual behavior for any firm regardless of the level of “chaos.”

On February 9, Reuters reporters Nick Brown and Grant McCool reported that an investigation of some sort was taking place, but again downplayed the possibility  for any serious charges due to “plenty of ‘chaos’ at MF Global in its waning days, but ‘no evidence of fraud,’” the article noted, quoting sources close to the investigation.

Unfortunately for MF Global customers, sweeping changes in the Federal Bankruptcy Code enacted in 2005 grant special super-priority status to derivatives in bankruptcy (including loans structured as repos) and prevent last minute margin transfers from being clawed back, except in the case of fraud (which everyone in charge refuses to discuss).  The excuse, or in legalese, “safe harbor”, was again roundly questioned by many leading industry professionals, including R. Christopher Whalen, when he appeared on CNBC with Rick Santelli and in an article he penned at Zero Hedge titled “MF Global: Where’s the Cash — Part II.”

The February 9 Reuters article went on to note “and keeping with the message pattern identified, people familiar with the situation said some executives and employees who, in the normal course of an investigation would have been interviewed by authorities at this stage, have not been asked to provide their version of events.” The February 10 report was similar in context and tone, noting an investigation was ongoing but that investigation was stalling.  This is a pattern that had developed, as increasingly pessimistic news concerning the potential for discovering the perpetrators was also accompanied by a dash of hope to add seasoning to the bad taste the investigation was leaving in people’s mouth.

Jubilation Over Justice Is Quickly Dampened

Fast forward to February 28, 2012. This is when solid news reports of a Chicago federal grand jury investigation surfaced in the CMEGroup annual report, which noted the exchange had received a subpoena.   This news was cheered by many industry participants, as the potential for justice finally appeared to arrive.  Just as quickly as the ray of hope of grand jury news reports were made public, another leak to the press emerged to dampen expectations that an investigation might yield results, again highlighting how the “case had gone cold.”

In an article titled “Doubtful Signs of a Criminal Case Against MF Global” on February 28, New York Times reporters Azam Ahmed and Ben Protess noted “Federal authorities are struggling to find evidence to support a criminal case stemming from the collapse of MF Global.”

Frustration Boils Over, Limited Options For Industry Participants

By now, growing discontentment from select industry participants with the investigation could be characterized as hostile.  Questions were being logically asked as to how it can be that a investigation was growing “cold” without interrogation of the primary suspect or interviewing potential witnesses to the crime.  Attempting to get their message heard with limited options, visible outrage occurred on Twitter, and a small group of industry participants, speaking behind the scenes, considered the motivation behind the press leaks.  A strategy appears to have emerged, with the goal to dampen expectations for any serious criminal charges and keep confidential key documents and testimony regarding what transpired before and after the historic bankruptcy.  Such suspicions grew with the next set of press leaks. Leaks apparently designed to discredit the more vulnerable.

Back Office Workers Defamed, Unable to Defend Themselves

From the moment CMEGroup Chairman Duffy released the bombshell that a senior MF Global employee had implicated Mr. Corzine, claiming falsification of documents and challenging the MF Global CEO’s sworn Congressional testimony, focus has been on those likely most knowledgeable of the situation: the back office employees.

Back office employees are typically trained to follow specific processes for managing customer capital, processes which are confirmed and audited on a regular basis by the broker’s regulator.  These processes are stressed tested, as the threat of real life chaos is considered a constant in the lives of many back office employees, particularly one as experienced and highly respected as Edith O’Brien, an MF Global treasurer.   It was these back office employees who likely executed what became, knowingly or not, the raid on customer segregated funds that may hold the key to understanding what really occurred.  If these individuals on the front lines were to provide testimony and documentation, it could unlock the key to understanding what transpired and potentially allow justice to prevail.

Unfortunately, the first news to emerge regarding back office employees didn’t focus on their cooperation with the court.  Instead, leaked reports focused on information possibly designed to defame the employees and paint a picture of lax back office behavior, which in turn supports the “vaporized” themes.  These leaks were also reported to come from those close to the court room proceedings and criminal investigation. Based on the documentation type, speculation favors that the documents were leaked by someone close to the liquidation trustee (Giddens) or bankruptcy trustee (Freeh), with a more distant possibility being law enforcement investigators.

How does the defamation of employees critical to the flow of funds work?

In an article published in both the Wall Street Journal and on the Fins Finance web site titled “Building Chaos at MF Global,” among the first reports to emerge regarding the MF Global back office focused on key employees and called them out by name.  The article noted that these two key employees were away at a ball room dancing competition in Las Vegas–a situation that might be laughable were it not so serious.  But this is yet only another distraction from the core issues.

The fact that two key employees, one, the MF Global North American finance chief, the second, the head of margins, would be away “ballroom dancing” when the company was under historic stress raises questions.  This curiosity is compounded when one considers that many at MF Global and inside the futures industry understood the firm may have been spiraling into bankruptcy during that very time.  In fact, senior management had prepared a “break the glass” document weeks before in early October that specifically identified a scenario under which the segregated customer funds account might go in the red.  Given this obvious crisis situation, of which senior management appeared acutely aware, why would management allow two key employees in finance and margins, potential customer safeguards, to be away at a time when they were known to be needed most?  It just does not add up.

All futures brokers are required to design and enforce internal controls and procedures that will protect customer funds under all circumstances.  These internal controls must be attested to by the firm’s senior officers and must be audited at least annually (in the case of MF Global, this was done by PricewaterhouseCoopers).  Who authorized these key employees to take time off in those critical days? What would be the motivation for top management to allow key back office personal to take off when, as Mr. Corzine even testified to Congress, they knew capital had to be rapidly raised and massive financial gaps had to be filled?     Were the firm’s internal controls and procedures followed?  Either way, the media ought to be questioning those who were responsible for designing and implementing those procedures, not putting out red herring stories that conjure images of a National Lampoon movie.

The source of these leaks ridiculing the two financial officers came from “internal emails, documents and people familiar with the matter.”  Who could this source be?  Simple knowledge of the case reminds us that the two trustees and FBI investigators had access to the documents in question.

More Strange Leaks, Wall Street Journal Headline: “Fast and Furious at MF Global”

The Wall Street Journal headline of March 1, 2012 may be appropriately titled, as it refers to another scandal at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, this one involving gun running to a Mexican drug cartel and a potential cover-up.

The article noted that “At 4:53 p.m. five days before MF Global Holdings Ltd. collapsed, an employee in its Chicago office asked a co-worker to move $165 million from one of the securities firm’s bank accounts to another.”  The approval was reportedly granted by email a mere minute later, and funds were transferred to an MF Global account at JP Morgan.  This raises a sea of questions:

First, the issue for customer segregated funds would have emanated from a transfer of funds from the futures brokerage unit into the securities brokerage unit.  The fact that it would be a securities to securities account transaction would fall under a different regulatory structure and likely not involve the theft of MF Global segregated funds.  MF Global had a paltry 318 securities accounts compared with over 38,000 active futures accounts.  Having said that, let’s assume the transfer was from a CFTC regulated futures account to an SEC regulated securities account.

That an end of day money transfer of $165 million out of a segregated account in the futures brokerage unit into the securities unit, approved in mere seconds, is almost surreal.  It could be speculated the speed at which this approval came might have indicated advance knowledge of the issue.  Conversely, if approvals of this magnitude are routinely granted this quickly, the issue of proper design and implementation of internal controls and procedures is brought into play.

To understand the significance of the approval, legal conditions are required between the bank depository and the FCM identifying the special segregated account status.  Further, what are known as 4-D and 30.7 account titles clearly identify the special nature of the customer segregated account.  Regulations that govern these special accounts cannot be violated–not on an end of day basis or even intraday, according to sworn Congressional testimony by CFTC General Counsel Dan Merkovitz. Did the transfer paperwork specify the 4-D or 30.7 account title?  With these rigid requirements, speculation among industry participants is that the move to transfer money out of a customer segregated account would not happen by “accident” in a moment of “chaos.”

According to the aforementioned February 6 status report filed in Court by Trustee Giddens, MF Global had a bad habit of dipping into customer funds during the day only to reconcile by the close of business.  Mr. Giddens states (emphasis ours):

The investigation to date has found that transactions regularly moved between accounts and that funds believed to be in excess of segregation requirements in the commodities segregated accounts were used to fund other daily activities of MF Global. In the past, such transfers were in amounts of less than $50 million, but as liquidity demands increased and could not be met from internal sources, much larger amounts were used, apparently with the assumption that funds would be restored by the end of the day. By Wednesday, October 26th, as the result of increasing demands for funds or collateral throughout MF Global, funds did not return as anticipated.

Recognize that some may interpret this statement as an admission that fraud regularly occurred at MF Global.  The unambiguous statement by the customer’s trustee clearly states that the provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) designed to protect customer funds were likely routinely violated, and knowingly so .  Yet, neither he nor anyone else in the know can so much as hint at fraud?

In the report, Mr. Giddens falls back on the chaos angle, stating, “As these withdrawals occurred, a lack of intraday accounting visibility existed, caused in part by the volume of transactions being executed…”  One has to read between the lines here, because based on Giddens’ prior disclosures, the primary cause of the lack of accounting visibility was the habitual violation of CEA regulations, but this is not mentioned–only the sheer “volume of transactions.”

One of Several Smoking Guns Being Ignored?

Back to the WSJ article, in what might be construed by some as covering tracks, it then quotes the back office staff as saying they noticed a mistake and then tried to reverse it.  If this were a crime, the mastermind might be saying right now, here’s what you tell them: “Oops, we just transferred $165 million from customer segregated funds to JP Morgan.  I hate it when that happens.  And because this case is a SIPA/Chapter 11 bankruptcy, we can engineer the process so that fraud is not investigated from the start and MF Global customers have no claw back rights.  The money stays at JP Morgan.”  And, as was reported in the press early in the bankruptcy, customers will have to be happy with sharing whatever might be recovered from the estate.

“Midlevel finance officials usually couldn’t move such funds without direction from more senior officials,” the article continues.  This is the essential point.  It is the author’s speculation that at some point there was likely an order from one of the big three in MF Global – Mr. Corzine, COO Bradley Abelow and/or CFO Henri Steenkamp.  Given the $6.3 billion trade in risky sovereign debt was known as the “Corzine trade,” the risk allocation of the trade that put the customer broker unit on the hook for all losses could be characterized as “his brainchild.”  Further, in all likelihood it was Mr. Corzine who had key trade management relationships with JP Morgan, and it might be assumed he had awareness of $165 million being sent to the firm.  Any mid level investigator might rightfully conclude that Mr. Corzine’s knowledge of the money transfer was highly likely, if not based on his actual instruction.

At the very least, MF Global’s internal controls were sorely lacking in design and implementation, and anyone who signed off on them, including Mr. Corzine and PricewaterhouseCoopers, may eventually have to answer for these alleged transgressions.

The article further revealed interesting developments at J.P. Morgan:

“JP Morgan also has been questioned about the $165 million transfer, according to a person familiar with the matter. Four days before MF Global filed for bankruptcy protection, the company’s brokerage unit borrowed the same amount using a secured credit facility led by J.P. Morgan. The loan was paid back the next day, this person said. It couldn’t be determined if the loan and transfer were related.”

These types of relationships and apparent cozy transfer of money between two entities highly related to the process warrant clear explanation before calling the case cold.  However, such explanation might be rather difficult given the fact that neither MF Global senior management nor key people in the back office have been questioned by investigators.

But that is only if fraud is investigated.  Remember, in the MF Global case there is not even the apparent suspicion of fraud.  No reason for any serious investigation into this story.

To quote the classic movie Wizard of Oz: “Ignore the man behind the Curtin.”  Ignore MF Global everyone.  There isn’t a story here


####

Article written by Mark Melin http://www.Twitter.com/markmelin with Bob English www.economicpolicyjournal.com with thanks to others who contributed.


http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/doubtful-signs-of-a-criminal-case-against-mf-global/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/09/us-mfglobal-idUSTRE8181UB20120209

http://www.apcoworldwide.com/content/locations/Keystaffbio.aspx?FName=Kent&LName=Jarrell&Office=washington_dc

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45069597/ns/business-us_business/t/mf-global-clients-face-shortfall-despite-protections/#.T1Sl9PVm6f4




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