In the continuing series of discussing methods of trading the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) futures contract traded on CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE®), this article will discuss utilizing the Commodity Channel Index (CCI).

In each article, readers are reminded that the liquidity of a trading instrument is always very important. On March 1, 2013, CFE again reported a continuing trend of increased volume in the VIX futures contract. Specifically, February 2013 was the second consecutive month that achieved record average daily volume, total volume and single-day volume for the VIX futures contract and for CFE.i

The average daily volume (ADV) for the VIX futures contract reached a record 161,176 contracts traded. This was an increase of 141% from February 2012 and an increase of 17% from January of 2013. February 25 and 26, 2013 experienced record volume days of 302,278 and 299,566 contracts traded respectively. This was also the first time that the VIX futures daily volume exceeded 300,000 contracts. The previously single-day record volume of 221,323 contracts was set on January 2, 2013. In February 2013, 3,062,344 VIX futures contracts were traded, representing an increase of 129% from February 2012. February 2013 trading represented a 6% increase from the record of 2,897,739 traded contracts set in January 2013. February 2013 was the sixth consecutive month in which trading exceeding two million VIX futures contracts and it was the first month in which trading exceeded 3 million VIX futures contracts.

The CCI was developed by Donald Lambert and introduced in the October 1980 issue of Commodities magazine (aka Futures magazine). Application of the CCI is not limited to physical commodities and may apply to financial instruments as well. The CCI is a metric of an investment’s variance from its statistical mean. The CCI reports high values when a market reaches an extended high price relative to its average price. It will report low values when a market reaches an extended low price relative to its average price. In basic terms, the CCI is an overbought/ oversold indicator.ii

The CCI is based on the premise that all markets have cycles from low to low or high to high. The CCI is calculated by calculating a typical price of the day from the high + low + close and then creating a simple moving average of the typical price. The final equation of the CCI = (typical price – moving average)/ (0.015* mean deviation). Lambert applies a constant of 0.015 to keep 70% to 80% of the CCI value between +100 and -100.iii

The CCI is considered overbought when the value exceeds +100 and is considered oversold when the value is below -100. However the CCI may extend beyond +100 and -100 and the market could remain overbought/ oversold for an extended period of time. If a market continues to remain overbought/ oversold, but the CCI is reversing (divergence appears) it may imply the market is nearing a correction. Some examples of divergence are provided in this article.

Parameters of the CCI are based on cyclical periods of the market. For this article we assumed a 60 day cycle, using a 20 day (1/3 of the cycle) CCI parameter setting. The lower the parameter setting, the greater the probability of the CCI to reach overbought/ oversold values.

Chart 1: Nearest Monthly VIX Futures Chart, 20 Month CCI

In 2012 we discussed methods of trading the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures contract at CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE). In this article, we will review the previously discussed trading methods and how to apply them to the current market environment.

Liquidity is an important factor for trading. Several times during 2012 VIX futures volume reached record levels including a record high of 2,734,248 contracts in November, Which was a 233% increase from November 2011’s 822,017 contracts and which broke the prior trading volume record set in October by 12%. In November the Average Daily Volume for VIX futures was 130,202, an increase of 233% from November 2011. To date, the November VIX futures total volume is 86% higher than it was in 2011 and year-to-date trading volume is 21,344,285 contracts versus 11,455,871 in 2011.i

In past articles we discussed the use of four VIX futures trading strategies: 1) utilizing support and resistance to seek contrarian changes at range bound extremes; 2) crossing of moving averages; 3) utilizing the Aroon Oscillator; and 4) using the True Range to trade VIX futures. In this article the parameters have been set to the same level as they were set in previous articles.

We begin discussing the support and resistance methodology. We originally discussed this in the September 2012 article “VIX Trading Strategies”. The VIX futures contract historically tends to find major price support between 10 and 15 and it finds major price resistance around 40 (with the exception of the financial crisis). As you will notice in the monthly chart below VIX futures tend to rally after forming a floor at or near a price of 15. This most recently occurred in 2010 and 2011. During the last several months, the VIX contract has once again found the price of 15 to be major price support area. Could this be the foundation of a floor for a rally in 2013?

Chart 1: Monthly Nearest VIX Futures Chart with Support and Resistance
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Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Creative inspiration is derived in many ways. The recent fiscal cliff debate in Washington D.C. may impact the economy at both the local and national level. I was inspired to write the following fun piece below:

Was the Night Before Fiscal Cliffness

By Mark Shore 12/28/2012

Inspired by “Twas the Night Before Christmas” and the craziness of D.C.

Everyone lets gather around the fireplace,

I have a story to tell you of a distant place,

Where everyone kicks a can without any disgrace:

Was the night before Fiscal Cliffness and all thro’ the house,

Not a congressional member was stirring, not even the speaker of the house,

The line was drawn in DC with care,

In hopes each would get what they wanted, but would not share,

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Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com

Follow Mark Shore on Twitter and Facebook

Continuing the series of discussing various methods of trading the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) futures contract at CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE), we will discuss the utility of the True Range indicator and the Average True Range indicator. In previous articles we discussed the use of spreading, correlations, moving averages and the Aroon indicator as methods of trading VIX futures.

Liquidity is an important factor of risk management. CFE announced on November 1, 2012, record volume in October 2012 for both the VIX futures contract and total volume of the Exchange. VIX futures reached a record 2,443,878 contracts traded in October 2012, a 172% increase from October 2011 and a 2% increase from September 2012. The October 2012 Average Daily Volume was 116,375 contracts, a 172% increase from October 2011 and a decrease of 8% from September 2012. However, the markets were closed for two days in October due to hurricane Sandy.i

In previous articles we discussed VIX futures as a mean-reverting market tending to find major price support between 10 and 15 and major price resistance around 40. However, within this range, market turning points do develop from time to time. The True Range indicator is a method of seeking changes in market momentum.

The True Range indicator and the Average True Range were developed by Welles Wilder, also known for developing the Relative Strength index, Directional Movement and the Parabolic Stop and Reverse. True Range is considered a metric of a market’s activity or volatility. Wilder first published the True Range indicator in his 1978 book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems”. The True Range indicator posits that the higher the number, the more likely the market will change direction. A lower number would indicate a weaker trend or indication of a sideways market. The True Range is defined as the maximum value of the following: 1) today’s high to today’s low; 2) yesterday’s close to today’s high; and 3) yesterday’s close to today’s low. The Average True Range is a moving average of the True Range.

VIX futures are an indicator of S&P 500 Index volatility and True Range is a volatility of the volatility or a second derivative of the READ MORE

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance. Mark is a contributing writer to Reuters HedgeWorld.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

In the September 2012 newsletter, the article “VIX Trading Strategies” was the first in a series discussing various technical and quantitative trading strategies beginning with a simple moving average approach to trading the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) VIX futures contract. This article discusses the use of the Aroon Oscillator.

The VIX futures contract tends to be mean-reverting, thus seeking overbought conditions is a logical approach to trading this market. As we noted in the previous article, VIX futures tends to trade between a major resistance near 40 and a major support of 10 to 15, and within that the market may trend.

Developing trading strategies involves the investigation of a market’s liquidity for various reasons, including the potential for slippage. On October 1, 2012, CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE) once again reported record volume in VIX futures. In September 2012 the Average Daily Volume reached a new record of 126,345 contracts versus the previous record of 102,587 contracts traded in June 2012. A new record was set in September 2012 of 2,400,552 contracts traded surpassing the previous record of 2,154,325 contracts traded in June 2012. i

For those not familiar with the Aroon Oscillator, it was developed by Tushar Chande in 1995. The oscillator first appeared in the September 1995 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine. The word “Aroon” is Sanskrit for “dawn’s early light”, thus seeking changes in a market. The oscillator is the differential between the Aroon Up and the Aroon Down indicators which creates an oscillator indicating a market’s strength in a trading range.

It is defined as an oscillator because it ranges between READ MORE

Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance. Mark is a contributing writer to Reuters HedgeWorld.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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In the May 2012 newsletter article “Volatility Futures: Relative Strength: A Family of Futures Products”, we discussed various methods of trading volatility futures products as spreads or indicators, with some discussion of their basic characteristics.

This article will provide discussion of trading methods for individual volatility futures products. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) futures contract tends to be mean-reverting and trades within a range bound market.

Excluding the 2008 financial crisis, the VIX level tends to fluctuate between 40 and 10. For liquidity seeking traders, hedgers or managers, the chart below demonstrates the increasing volume and open interest in VIX futures, making it a viable choice for a liquid portfolio.

VIX futures trading volume recently reached a new high on three fronts:

1) In August 2012, the VIX futures average daily volume increased by 4.6% to 83,016 contracts versus August 2011 volume of 79,402 contracts.

2) The total volume year to date trading volume in VIX futures has increased by 59% to 13.7 million contracts versus January through August of 2011 volume of 8.6 million contracts.

3) On September 13, 2012 the VIX futures contract reached a new single-day volume record of 190,081 contracts traded. The previous record was 159,744 contracts traded on June 8, 2012.

In a range bound market, long term directional trading may not work as well as it would in other futures markets. Overbought and oversold indicators may have greater utility value. However in the shorter term (duration of days and weeks), directional trades may offer some value.

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Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops. www.shorecapmgmt.com

Mark Shore is also an Adjunct Professor at DePaul University’s Kellstadt Graduate School of Business in Chicago where he teaches a managed futures / global macro course and an Adjunct at the New York Institute of Finance. Mark is a contributing writer to CBOE’s Chicago Futures Exchange and to Reuters HedgeWorld.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options.  Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program.  Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Published July 31, 2012
CBOE Futures Exchange
“Futures in Volatility” Newsletter
By Mark Shore

While analyzing the utility value of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures® contract relative to the underlying market (S&P 500), a question often arises regarding the correlation of these two instruments. In this article we look at various durations of rolling correlations to determine its utility value.

The “static” correlation of two investment components is often quoted in a correlation matrix table when multiple markets are discussed or if there are only two markets, a single quote.

From January 2004 to June 2012, static correlation of daily VIX end of day data to the S&P 500 is -0.75. However, a static correlation does not always offer a strong profile of correlation. Correlation typically depends on the time duration of a holding period, thus building a profile of that period. One must keep in mind the S&P 500 has a growth component, whereas the VIX is more of a mean reverting market with moments of upward or downward spikes.

Between January 2004 and June 2012, the VIX reached its maximum close of 80.06 on October 27, 2008. It reached a minimum of 9.89 on January 24, 2007. During this period the VIX has averaged 21.08

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Copyright ©2012 Mark Shore. Contact the author for permission for republication at info@shorecapmgmt.com Mark Shore has more than 20 years of experience in the futures markets and managed futures, publishes research, consults on alternative investments and conducts educational workshops.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is risk of loss when investing in futures and options. Always review a complete CTA disclosure document before investing in any Managed Futures program. Managed futures can be a volatile and risky investment; only use appropriate risk capital; this investment is not for everyone. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are only for educational purposes. Please talk to your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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